Saturday, January 31, 2009

Value Rapist

I had too much tea this week…….dah nak sembelit ni

"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people”
-Elanor Rossevelt

Today lets discuss people, events and ideas……

Lets start with people……

How do you feel if a group of people collaborate to deceive you of the value of a transaction, and because of their action we have badly designed infrastructures that was supposed to solve a particular problem?Or abusers of a policy that was supposed to help? Or those who hoard goods to inflate the price of some of your daily needs?...dan macam macam lagi

To me they are rapists of value…..

Some known to you…………..some are not…..

At the end of it, a lot of people are raped of the true value…..

some people actually compete using the value they stole from us to have the ability to become the top rapist ………..

Corruptions inflates value for the benefit of few and sufferings of many….they rape us …day in day out..its as simple as that....

Do you like being raped daily?...

If you don’t then you must do something about it now…….

Now let us look at events…..

A bunch of people got upset about MACC going after UMNO………….

That sure to me looked like a bunch of rapist defending other rapist of value……..

Perangai macam ni memang buat malu orang Melayu aje beb….

Terus terang…kelam kabut….Sedar sikit brader

To me there's nothing much to discuss about ideas….perhaps just one....if you don't mind

MACC ni pulak bingai gile….they should have employed all available technology to get to the masses for information about corruption……..

Information moves freely nowadays…..a thumb drive the size of 2G can be as light as a feather in you pockets…….how many files do you think can fit in them………

There’s this initiative by Wiki for quite sometime…. it allows people to upload files containing corruption, abuses etc etc……..

So I went MACC website to know if they’ve got a similar initiative….cause somehow I don’t think Official Secret Act can go head to head with MACC……Being an instrument of Government it must be able to have official and unofficial access to all information….

The problem is people are scared of passing the information in the current MACC approach as it is so easy to PIN point those who have access to them….the number can be less than 10 sometimes…….or people in the know who had witnessed the event could only be just 3 or 4……how la?

Lu bole guarantee ke gua tak kena kantui....

Anyway back to people.....

Folks you cant go on makan duit haram and feed your family with it…you just need to do what is right….stop the economic rape on you…….say enough is enough…come forward please

Maybe u can start by sending them your thumb drive....make sure there is no digital trail to your computer as well check under file properties or last saved...careful on the tiny bits of info...

Friday, January 30, 2009

sPINnin around the Teapot

Lain Kali nak KENCING orang.....u better be ready with some SOLID proof or you will end up just like that........

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

satDnomic stimulus Fuck Fest 1 - Help the Rakyat

So are we ready to FUCK big momma?

Gue udah stim ni...

Remember how the mechanism that lead to the crisis......securitisations

Do not be afraid of it, done properly can be very very profitable.....

In 1998, after the ringgit was fixed I left the FX market into the shadowy world of reinsurance investment banking.....the goal was how to help insurance company in the region to cover the losses arising from equity investments in their books......

We undertook an embedded value analysis on the value of the future receivables of life insurance see when u buy a policy with a long term commitment to pay premium in return for protection..the cashflow becomes more certain...and given the right number of observation you could accurately predict the Claims, the Lapses (those who stop paying), the Withdrawal (those who ask for cash value) , the Premiums, Reserves and all of these goes into computing this Embedded Value that represent the Discounted Potential Profit from a Block of Life Insurance Policy.......

So what we did was we bought this value with some discount of course and took the risk out of their books as well.....hence it classifies as a Reinsurance Contract........they receive an upfront kinda work like an asset swap.......

We get a portion of the premium they collect and we share the risk of the policy with them....the interest rate used to discount the cash flow is our expected return......where to get the money to do this?

Securitisation........we package this whole thing...with exposure from the region into an Asset Backed the end of the deal we were earning around 1500 basis point...

Why did it worked?.........To me risk diversification of the portfolio being securitized.......all kind of people from different background, different race, different religion, different income groups etc etc etc........all these helped us in predicting and pricing the structure properly......

You might be tempted to say that securitisation is my fren have no fear.....this whole bloody loan securitisation failure stems from the lack of data on Credit Risk......Not enough experience......and poor transparency by the originators and the gatekeepers (rating agency)

Did you know that all the fancy mumbo jumbo BIS II Internal Model for Credit Risk depends on the probability of default which is measured as an Annual Observation........How many years back did the BLOODY Banks start collecting this data?????

Credit Risk Models requires proper validation and backtesting of results....if you need to validate the model you will need say 250 Observation (if you follow the logic in Market Risk Models) so to do that you will need data for 250 Years looking back and that would be data from 1759.

Now what to do? who got data that far they all kencing us with statistical jargon like monte carlo simulation.......and the rest as you know this bloody crisis (i'll write more about what i think on the causes of the crisis).....

Insurance industry on the other hand got data running for at least a hundred years.....we have tables for mortality and lapses based on the consolidated claims and experience data of the Industry...
but not all country have their own table......some use an adjusted kali 1 setengah on the original table......

Anyway....enough foreplay.....lets screw.....with love of do not hate fuck big momma...... you fuck her with love......


Crunchy Loans For the Rakyats....

Initiate a retail personal loans programs to all Malaysian who have GOOD records in the BNM CCRIS Database.........all individual affected (i still dont know how to define this yet) can apply an amount equivalent to 6 months salary BUT there must be a cap on the maximum value........

All Banks will participate in the programs to offer Crunchy Loans to their customers...

The Government will provide Credit Protection and Initial Funds to kick start the Programs....

Loan Terms and Agreement to be dictated by the borrower NOT the per AL Baqarah 282 provisions.....

So you tell the bank how much you are willing to pay and for how long...they can then work out how much can be lent......if you need more than you apply for credit protection from the Government.........if you need even more then you rope in your kids into this...make it an inter-generational loan........if needed....

For those who are not inside BNM CCRIS database, they can apply for full credit protection from the government- as to what the minimum conditions i also don't know, maybe we need to go down to the society level i.e. Masjid, Churches, Temples etc to add an additional monitoring tool as well as for these institutions to 'vouch' for the applicant.

You then MUST PROMISE to PAY BACK the MONEY........sumpah with your own respective HOLY now you will default against your GOD if you cabut lari and don't pay...... berdosa tu........Remember folks....

Given the fact that the whole country may be applying then the Risk can be very diversified...attach the Unemployment Policy to these loans and perhaps some health cover as well

What the Government do next is to securitise the receivables(This can be done via a SPV which uses Cagamas as its administrator) into the Retail Crunchy Loan Backed Government Guaranteed Bonds which can qualify as Reserve Assets for Banks.........with rates this low..please pass it to the rakyat.....we can spend the money you idiot....

This can also solve the issue of bank takut to lend to retail...hopefully...


A Home for Every Malaysian......refer my old post here.....

Until the next screw........regards satD

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Saturday, January 24, 2009

satDnomic stimulus……..sequences in economic wanking,foreplay and intercourse

The act of stimulating means something gets stimulated and if you are faced with the gargantuan task of stimulating the economy you must know what makes it tick to start with….cause if you push the wrong button nothing happens……

So where do we begin….and remember folks there is no majic blue pill here, you must think of it like pleasuring a lady......mmm……start with getting to know her deeply, her sweet spots…have proper foreplay and do not RUSH into the main course……premature ejaculation is the worst thing… they say buat membazir benih aje

Step One…….Getting to know Ms Economy and how she wants to be satisfied……

Ms Economy is one big momma….made up of so many different components…like the human body it is one of the most complex systems with so many unexplored components…

At the same time this Big Momma also has a lot of living organisms in it, who are the eventual stakeholders that is interested in her well being……

What are these organisms? What do they need from her to feel good and stay alive as long as she is at a certain level of health….some die more quickly that others….…..

These organisms comprises of Individuals, Entrepreneurs, Companies, Government etc etc….and the Foreign Counterparts who wants to trade with us…..and all of them have different perspective as to what constitute the creation, preservation and destroyers of value

Hoh……now what is Value to Big Momma?

Is it working 18hours a day and earning 6-7 figures or working 12 hours and earn 5/4 figures with time to spend with your family……or is it having a a large bunch of our workforce working as legoland assemblers for foreign manufacturers…..or to have more and more small time entrepreneurs into a diversified cottage industry distributed across the country…or is it to have our own homegrown global technology company, or is it to find the cure for Cancer…...or is it the cost of doing business, bla, bla bla,bla…. or what ever la….bersepah sepah gua pun malas nak analyse in detail…..BUT the Key is to define a Common Theme of Value that will make Big Momma cum big time with the large part of her living organism within the ecosystem jumping for joy

This is where the DELICATE Balancing ACT by the Man of the Moment (Minister of Finance) is so crucial….what are his objectives (does it represent our collective needs?), does he wants to have a quicky one nite stand or does he wants to slow dance this lady….and put her in heat…… that other dudes out there would be queuing for their turn to screw this big momma…..

What is it that we are chasing currently? Short Term gains and Artificial Value Preservation or do we want to plan for longer term returns by strategically investing into specific key growth enablers of our economy for it leap into the next level of its evolution.....

Step Two …….BOGEL

Strip down Ms Economy to understand her critical value drivers…..start from the macro perspective and go deeper into the micro perspective……micro factors are always a subset of the macro factors…..understand the connectivity and overall value chain

Find out which sector in the economy are value creators and value destroyer….then only we can understand all the potential interactions and connectivity…..

We must draw our collective experience to do that…. those working in the market s during the 97-98 crisis periods had the experience of watching and learning a crisis… were challenged to think of how can you avoid these again …….and if you remember the policy makers interacted more with the man on the street……..

Most countries have Early Warning Systems after the 97-98 Crisis (One of the Good IMF Recommendations to the borrowing countries) implemented in their respective Central Banks, SC and MOF….Do we have one operating to assist the Policy Makers ????????

This is the time FOR COLLECTIVE ACTION in the parliament……………..and the WHOLE BLARDY COUNTRY…… consolidate our political differences and work together……Political parties have an extensive branch network who knows people on the ground in different segments of the Economy……

BEGIN interacting with the WHOLE country….not about politics but about the economy …you will understand the problems better at the local, districts, state and eventually the Federal level…..

And to those of you who know for a fact that you can contribute…..please do…..apelah sangat modal….a few minutes surfing and couple of keyboard clicks…….or maybe answering a survey honestly….

I was proud once being a Malaysian abroad……these days I just shrug my shoulder with a facial expression before answering a question about the situation in Malaysia…i can't even hide my body language anymore..

This is the time folks to regain that feeling that you get when someone in the future says…look at how the Malaysians did it……


We must also consolidate regionally to understand how our resource utilization, mobility and intra-ASEAN trade so that we can come up with harmonized initiatives……………….

One thing about harmonized countermeasures, it can be dangerous especially in fast moving markets, cash especially….confidence must be at all times maintained to avoid a LIQUIDITY CRISIS into our system..

I’m hoping that we could also see greater coordination among regional regulators…too much talk shop crap at ASEAN (Kalau nak pergi shopping baik tak payah...membazir duit rakyat hantar lu pergi meeting......terbang tak sampai 2 jam bayar ticket mahal gile!! kiiiiimak lu )

Step Three…..Foreplay

Once you know more about this Big Momma….you start stroking her where she likes it….make her tinggle….naik bulu roma kinda thing…………

this is where “Specific Policies and Counter Measure” and Perhaps Fiscal Incentives are given…………if she doesn’t react…….and still feels pretty dry….go to step four..

Step Four….Lubrication

Lubrication…….to get it the right spots of course....

And in the case of the economy…….MONEY either directly from the Man of the Moment or he makes it easy to get it from other sources such as financial intermediaries, cooperative societies and agencies etc……

I would prefer if the government focuses on making it easy to get the money from private sources….you of all people can win the contest of diversified risk and you can also print money…….

Now we all need to watch BNM actions more closely to understand the level of liquidity in the market, if the market is flush and banks are not lending them……. why the need to increase our deficit further?

Why can’t The Govt increase its Credit Risk Guarantee to selected segment of the economy to help assist the confidence of Bankers??.... I think RM 2 Billion is small…we need more…BUT make sure there is proper limit on Individual Exposure to ensure that you are not too overly exposed….strategic national interest OK……no problem……..proxies a big NO NO…..if you need to take an strategic exposure from a proxy make sure you are transparent in the valuation…..NO MARKET BASED RULE SHOULD APPLY…YOU NAME THE PRICE…..NOT THEM….

AND GET THE BLOODY BANKS TO LEND…..if they don’t achieve the target lending… borrow back at ZERO Interest as PENALTY to those GREEDY Shareholders….you can calculate this at the end of the year in the form of SRR adjustment…with compound interest please

Step Five…….The Screw….

Main Man… need to conserve your bullets….can’t keep on pumping forever…and with your pancut cepat strategies….there is a huge possibility that a large chunk of the Billions you want to spend quickly may go to waste……….

Things to Avoid

Too Much Wanking…………………………..Do not succumb to the temptation of printing too much money… will destroy value even further……..

If she does not cum…restart foreplay focusing at other parts of her…this is one long session we gonna have……

To BNM if MOF is an Idiot just say so please…..this time I think you know better than rest out there….

FX Volatilities are increasing…..please keep an eye out on our Ringgit please……don’t waste too much on intervention …sayang tu…..quick question what If you move a large part of our reserves to Gold Markets and other Central Banks follow suit…..and you all clear with one another with Synthetic Gold?

I think the time has come to dump the Dollar altogether… reserve currency should not be anchored to a country facing a systematic collapse of its banking system……

One last thing sebelum gua lupe…..does anyone know about Project Crinis??? I think they’ve got good recommendations there….to help with the leakages in Big Momma….

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Thursday, January 22, 2009

THANK U CHINA!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll pee on your grave just to make sure ur dead!!!! (pinjam Bob Dylan sikit)

Chinese sentenced to death over tainted milk

A Chinese court on Thursday sentenced two men to death for their role in the production and sale of melamine-tainted milk that killed at least six children and made nearly 300,000 ill.

The former head of the dairy firm at the heart of the scandal, the now bankrupt Sanlu Group, got life in prison and a fine, which may anger some affected parents who had hoped she would face the ultimate punishment.

The closely watched trial of middlemen and executives from the Sanlu Group -- accused of peddling poisonous products or turning a blind eye to their sale -- wrapped up just before the most important holiday in China, the Lunar New Year.

Traditionally a time for families to reunite, Beijing may have hoped the sentences would deflect public outrage about the deadly impact of the tainted milk during the festive period.

Claims of official concealment and indifference have turned the milk powder case into a volatile political issue for the ruling Communist Party, which is wary of protest.

Police detained two parents to stop them attending the trial of the dairy executives, one father and fellow activists said on Wednesday.

On Thursday, police guarded the courthouse at Shijiazhuang, a gritty industrial city south of Beijing, nudging people away but avoiding harsh confrontation. The session to announce the verdicts and sentences was closed to the public but a court official gave details to reporters outside.

Sanlu had failed to report cases of Chinese children developing kidney stones and other complications from drinking their milk months before news of the problem broke in

September, making former general manager Tian Wenhua a particular target for angry parents.

”I think she should be shot. A death for a death,” said Zheng Shuzhen, a 48-year-old grandmother from central Henan province, who said her one-year-old granddaughter, Zhou Mengxian, died in June of kidney failure after drinking Sanlu milk formula but was not included in the list of victims.

Tian had pleaded guilty to charges of producing and selling fake or substandard products, which state media said did not carry a death sentence.

Besides the life sentence, she was fined 24.5 million yuan ($3.6 million).

One of the men sentenced to death was Zhang Yujun. Zhang had made and sold over 600 tonnes of powder which contained melamine between October 2007 and August 2008, worth around 6.8 million yuan ($994,700), the official China Daily quoted prosecutors saying earlier this month.

The powder was bought by middlemen who added it to pooled, watered-down milk from farmers that was then sold on to Sanlu. The powder, used in making plastics, is added to cheat nutrition tests. One of these men was also given the death sentence.

The court had announced it would sentence 21 defendants implicated in the scandal Thursday afternoon. However, it said shortly before the court opened that nine of them would be sentenced at other courts.

Spend What?....Quickly pulak tu!!!!!!

Imagine having 7 billion to spend quickly? (i'll book my Ducati 1098R Bayliss Limited Edition!!!, Pak Lah if u ever need to sell the boat let me know as well ya)

Are these existing projects?

Are these newly "conceived" projects by CONsultants? if so, how is the tender and allocation procedure? If you wanna spend fast, are you sure that there is ZERO leakage to corruption? (Imagine flies and shit....folks, or the more polite semut and gula)

What is the "expected"Multiplier effect of these project to the Economy?

How can these "projects" help our economy and the rakyat in general?

Are we chasing short-term returns that does not create real value from a competitive perspective?

What is our "thing" actually these days? What drives investors or bankers to fuel the engine of growth?

Good that you've lowered interest rate and statutory reserves, but if they don't lend BNM will end up borrowing them back and pay interest on these you plan to "implement" a target loan growth to our banks like how you did in 1998 and if they don't comply wat-u-gonna do?

Lapar siut......gonna go makan first

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The Messenger of the Book of Specification

First of all i would like to give a well deserved "slow motion" clap to the folks who had coffee in bangsar village and came up with the campaign (Although i do not think that there should be an end date to this campaign)

Before we begin I think it is best for us to get to know the man whom the message was delivered, the same man for the remaining of his life dedicated his heart and soul in propagating the message.............learn about his childhood life, his challenges, his companions n enemies , and of how he delivered the message...

Enter the Sealed Nectar, the authoritative biography of the Prophet Muhammad S.A.W, an award winning book at world-wide competition on the biography of the Prophet held at Makkah al-Mukarramah by the Muslim World League in 1979

I came across the book during lunch at the Mekkah Hilton shopping center, there's this small bookstore called Dakwah, manned by a very knowledgeable Brother from Myanmar. The man impressed me with his knowledge of the Quran and the contents of his inventory. They've opened a branch in KL, do drop by for a visit

My version of the Sealed Nectar was a pocket-size go anywhere (no bigger than my palm), which remained in my jubah throughout my stay in Mekkah...the book transported me back to the days of his Prophethood, everywhere i went i imagined how it must have been like then.....the events, the places where he stood and prayed........I finally finished the book during my flight back to KL and i wept silently in the dark...............

For those who support cetak rompak you may go here to download the full e-version (Please doa for the Author folks...i think he did a great job), For those who like to click hyperlinks and navigate pages more intuitively go here

And to you who have spent the last few minutes reading this post....please spread the message

Thank You

FOLKS: If you want to comment click the topic hyperlink then only the comment form will load (i'm still figuring out this bug with Intense debate-wrote to them a few days response so far)

Unemployment Insurance, the missing social safety net

1,000,000 people could lose their job THIS YEAR

How many is expected to lose their job next year?

How many fresh graduates are entering the job market this year, and the next, and the next? What in the world are they studying now? Would that little piece of paper bring any value to them? Or should they start learning new skills to prepare them for survival in the years to come?

What sector runs the highest risk of unemployment in Malaysia? What are the drivers of unemployment in these sectors?

All these questions bring about some memories in 1999, I was in Europe designing a product for one the largest global bank operating there, they wanted to hedge the risk of potential defaults by borrowers should they become unemployed...we studied detail unemployment data of various region in Europe and came up with an insurance product tied to the loan exposure. In the event that the borrower is retrenched then the insurance policy takes over to cover his installments for 6 or 12 months depending on the policy terms and condition.

In 2000, Malaysia claims that we do not need Unemployment Insurance because we have "full employment" - Ni betul2 Luncai infrastructure requires proper planning pakcik, it is about preparing for a potential risk and providing the right safety net for your rakyat.

What if, after 1997-98 crisis, we had put in another component of Social Infrastructure whereby the Employers Contribute to a Pooled Fund, with a small element of Employee contribution. And all insurance company can participate into this fund to offer protection to the workforce. Would we be better prepared to handle what is coming?

Risk if well managed can be a good thing, and risks requires redistribution to reduce its impact to the overall economy.....right now this risk is with the Man on the Street with No tools to Hedge against the incoming tide of bad news..........(i met someone during my KL trip last Dec, he was from KT, came to KL to work for a LCD factory, lost his job 2 months ago, cant go back to KT, now doing odd job in KL......and guess what....he's Malay! How many more are out there? )

It is the Malay who will first suffer should the economy contracts further you IDIOT..yes you the GOVERNMENT who champions affirmative action-stop bickering and start coming out with a Nationwide solution covering the whole demographics, and while you're at it don't forget the foreign workers as well, make sure they get their gaji if they get fired

Retraining assistance when someone is struggling to pay his bills, installments, children food does not mean much..........if we do not have such tools to help them on a day to day basis while they find work then expect rising social issues to deal with....

What do you think? Would you like to have one?

KT................... The Aftermath

Did 527 people told us what was going to happen on Saturday.....

My initial analysis of the survey showed someone was trying to hide(of perhaps a genuine mistake) that as a group 50.65% preferred the whole Ketuanan Rakyat thinggy

If 50.65% preferred that, then if 63,993 people voted with 665 undi rosak then there is a possibility that 32,409 people would have voted a PAS candidate representing the Ketuanan Rakyat political system.......come Saturday....32,883 people voted infavor of PAS....that was close........This time around the votes was less by 1,118 votes......what happened to these 1,118 did they preferred to stay on the sidelines?How was the so called ground forces activities......?

I guess their sample size did represent what the general feeling on the ground was...but did we really need a sample to figure this one out?

Questions are being raised on the relevancy of UMNO to the Malays and the BN formula, BN's choice of candidate and the general perception of people towards his association with the ultimate symbol of failure in the Malay value system........

A few things come to mind like...where are the Malay votes heading?

Did they really swing or are they confused?

Remember when UMNO was divided after the Anwar saga part 1 in 1999 elections - 14,448 vote majority by PAS...that's a swing to me.......Now with 1,118 people voting less, a lower than average winning margin % of total votes (51.39% vs 54.22%Avg, PAS swing in 99 delivered 64.83%) and potentially the Chinese taking a safe vote.......

What can we infer from the numbers? Borderline confusion...perhaps......

On sentiment, I got a few semi-off-topic question here....(the human memory seldom forgets negative events, unless a personal traumatic one-even that most people try but fails)

1. How did Badawi spent his hari rayas? I've been away most of the time during his tenure but somehow i could not remember thetypical image of a leader who would salam with all his rakyat at his home as how Tun Mahathir did during his time........(sampai nak kena pakai cast tu, and he kept on going...)

2. Do you think it is a "Malay" thing for a candidate to be parachuted into UMNO No 2 Youth spot?

3. How bout the plane, the boat, the house and the conduit.... (this one no need hyperlinked one..EVERYBODY KNOWS!!!!!!)

4. And all the outstanding "corporate" activities .......(or planned activities) - IJN and Labu especially (Lu orang betul tak tahu timing nak curi time do it while most people are not watching!!!)

Well Terengganu(Pak lah's drive thru museum of failures) have spoken, what now?

Perhaps someone should reconsider to pursue his talk-show act? I bet this guy knows that he is putting an ACT in public.......SCHIZO SCHMUCK!!!

Please both of you fade into Oblivion!!!! i don't want to even remember you....both of you are the symbol of greed, failure(malu siut orang demo bawak bantal!!), excess and everything that is not MALAY!!!!!!! How can you even consider offering yourself to lead the Malays and to dream of leading the Nation...Go fly kite please.....thousands are better than YOU!!!!!

Time to go Loooooser..........make it quick please

FOLKS: If you want to comment click the topic hyperlink then only the comment form will load (i'm still figuring out this bug with Intense debate)

This is a reposting of the original (de-Bugging effort)

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Intense Debate Testing

Folks i've added a new function on me blog

It's called Intense Debate, do check out the features here

It should enhance the comment section.....err ....not that i'm getting that much comment..but one must plan for the future .....

Hopefully other bloggers would try it out as well......

Initial Test Result

You can register or remain an anon, but i do recommend u to register with Intense debate its so easy , once there your experience on commenting will leap into a new uncharted teritory(u even have a comment dashboard kinda neat for those who do not have a blog) n also track who is responding to your comments and get notification(via email) exactly on who is communicating with you....i kinda like it but lets see how buggy this thing is will update in a few days

Latest Bug Update
It seems to take over the Old comments and show that 0 comments, i'm finding ways to import old comments into the new platform (They've disabled the import function at this stage, still testing- I've managed to recover older comments as well)

I've also added a hyperlink, picture upload function for the new platform so this will make it easy for u to share stuff with other readers (Nope this part did not work, the html code had a conflict with the main widget)

FOLKS Give it a shot !! Who knows this can be the THING we all NEED

The number of comments on this post is missing, you need to click the post link, wait for the page to load and then only intense debate widgets takes over your comment platform......

Its the after all of these that the true experience of conversations among a community of people responding to a blog post .......- Will provide update on this bug, awaiting response from the company....They were responsive the first time around, now its almost 2 days....since my last query....but i think in the future all those on wordpress will have this as a standard feature....

Labu Win Win Solution

Vertical Integration

1. Share swaps between AirAsia and MAHB

2. MAHB Charges lower for Airasia and get its traffic in KLIA

3. Rope in ERL as well as transportation partners - Vouchers can then be given to passengers to accommodate discounts to services if needed (some of AirAsia KL-KLIA Bus services should relocated to other routes)

4. Increase travel agents on site (KLIA + KLSentral) via Kiosks with full booking facilities

Err what else..ah...mmm.......lets start with these first if possible.....can be done free of duit rakyat actually...and no waste in value....there's no point in building something that does not add value to the existing infrastructure.....

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Mamihlapinatapai P036 Kuale Gannu

I first came across this word in one of my toilet readings of readers digest 15 years ago, had always associated it with that awkward moment before a first kiss…….

Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to my favorite Tiera del Fuegian(actually the only one I know) word – listed by Guinness Book Of Records as the “most succinct” word and also the hardest word to translate…

MAMIHLAPINATAPAI : “a look shared by two people with each wishing that the other will initiate something that both desire but which neither one wants to start."

I think this particular word can best describe the situation between UMNO and PAS, both is aware of the repositioning requirement to meet the changing mindset of Malaysians in general. Individually both have their own strength and know that there are many common grounds that they can work together especially in the areas of Malay and Muslim ummah in general.

Over the years one can observe the transformational process of the two parties towards the “common” ground. Many have written on UMNO’s move towards in taking a more Islamic stance and PAS emerging appeal to the Non-Muslim. As always where debates on ideology stops; actual performance and general sentiment takes over in deciding the winning candidate.

Let us look at the historical performance of Kuala Trengganu in particular; (Source SPR Results)

From the data we can safely say that the difference between a 3 way fight Vs a 2 Way fight is small with both candidate losing their deposit in 1990 and 2008. Voter turn-out have been on a steady increase, jumping significantly in 2004 but winning candidate number of votes have been rather flat since 1999 averaging around 31,712. The largest ever majority was in 1999 when PAS won with 14,448 vote majority.

According to official numbers the potential voters based on final SPR data as of December 2008; 80,229 registered voters may vote in the coming election, of which 79,194 are normal voters and 1,035 postal voters. Estimated demographics indicate that numbers of Chinese voters is around 10.95%. Perantau also claims that there is close to 75 voters above 100 years old, 302 voters between 90 and 100 and 1,308 between 80 to 90 years old (Good diet of kerepuk leko must be their secret)

Merdeka Center recently released survey findings in which I have some doubts on its data integrity. Do allow me do indulge you in some simple mathematics. Refer to page 19 on the survey report, whereby the interviewer ask the respondents on their views on “What type of Political System is appropriate for Malaysia” with answers ranging from Malay Dominance, Supremacy of People, Tidak Tahu and No Response, refer to the chart below

Observed from the Total Sample size of 527 respondents, Merdeka output shows that 46% supports Malay Dominance and 45% support Supremacy of the People. If one care to look deeper in the numbers if 52% out of 408 Malays and 1% of 119 Chinese said yes to Malay Dominance the total number of yes out of 527 respondents is actually 213 people which makes up 40.48% and if 94% of 119 Chinese said yes to Supremacy of People supported by 38% of 408 Malays then the total number of respondents to Supremacy of People is 50.65%.(94% x 119 + 38% x 408 = 266 people)

THAT is A HUGE difference from the original 46% and 45% respectively (Yo!!! Merdeka Center lu orang belajar campur tolak ke dulu….validate lah output first before releasing to general public…nasib baik ade monyet ni nak check data lu).

Other parts of the survey I find interesting is the sample size of 527. Two general formulae exist to calculate the correct sample size. One calculates the sample size when estimating averages and the other is used when estimating proportions or percentages. The formula used for estimating proportions should be used anytime you’re interested in a percentage, e.g. the proportion of registered voters who plan on voting for a certain candidate.

The general formulae based on proportions are as follows

zα/2 represents the number of standard deviations relative to the mean of the standard normal curve corresponding to the level of confidence.

The Margin of Error is a value added to and subtracted from the estimate which establishes an interval which interval contains the true population parameter, given a certain level of confidence.

P is the a prior assumption of the population parameter. If no information is available p should be assumed to be 0.5

So in the case of Kuala Terengganu

Say now we wish to estimate the proportion of registered voters who plan on voting for a particular candidate and we want a confidence level of 90% with a Margin of Error of ±3%. A prior survey (or actual voting result) shows that 49.96% out of 82.45% or 41.18% of registered voters selected the winning party. The current population of registered voters in KT is 80,229. What is the minimum sample size that is required?

D = (0.03%)^2/1.645^2 = 0.00033

N = 80,229

P= 0.4118

1-P = 0.5882

Minimum sample size should be at least = 80,229 (0.5882)/[(80228)(0.00033)+0.4118(0.5882)= 1766 respondent




Anyway back to my favorite word mamihlapinatapai whatever the outcome of Kuala Terengganu I hope that both parties look into their common grounds in which PAS and UMNO can work together for the Malay and Muslim Ummah of Malaysia

Selamat Ngundi Ore Gannu!!!!!

Kalu ikut perspective ore kelate , ore gannu ni pelek sikit, nasi dage cayo putih guano weh abe, kito buat batik demo buat jugok ambo surrender kain sonket ajo weh hok lain kelate is THE BEST!!!!!!!!!!!

Minds are like parachutes; they work best when open. -Lord Thomas Dewer