Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Mamihlapinatapai P036 Kuale Gannu

I first came across this word in one of my toilet readings of readers digest 15 years ago, had always associated it with that awkward moment before a first kiss…….

Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to my favorite Tiera del Fuegian(actually the only one I know) word – listed by Guinness Book Of Records as the “most succinct” word and also the hardest word to translate…

MAMIHLAPINATAPAI : “a look shared by two people with each wishing that the other will initiate something that both desire but which neither one wants to start."

I think this particular word can best describe the situation between UMNO and PAS, both is aware of the repositioning requirement to meet the changing mindset of Malaysians in general. Individually both have their own strength and know that there are many common grounds that they can work together especially in the areas of Malay and Muslim ummah in general.

Over the years one can observe the transformational process of the two parties towards the “common” ground. Many have written on UMNO’s move towards in taking a more Islamic stance and PAS emerging appeal to the Non-Muslim. As always where debates on ideology stops; actual performance and general sentiment takes over in deciding the winning candidate.

Let us look at the historical performance of Kuala Trengganu in particular; (Source SPR Results)

From the data we can safely say that the difference between a 3 way fight Vs a 2 Way fight is small with both candidate losing their deposit in 1990 and 2008. Voter turn-out have been on a steady increase, jumping significantly in 2004 but winning candidate number of votes have been rather flat since 1999 averaging around 31,712. The largest ever majority was in 1999 when PAS won with 14,448 vote majority.

According to official numbers the potential voters based on final SPR data as of December 2008; 80,229 registered voters may vote in the coming election, of which 79,194 are normal voters and 1,035 postal voters. Estimated demographics indicate that numbers of Chinese voters is around 10.95%. Perantau also claims that there is close to 75 voters above 100 years old, 302 voters between 90 and 100 and 1,308 between 80 to 90 years old (Good diet of kerepuk leko must be their secret)

Merdeka Center recently released survey findings in which I have some doubts on its data integrity. Do allow me do indulge you in some simple mathematics. Refer to page 19 on the survey report, whereby the interviewer ask the respondents on their views on “What type of Political System is appropriate for Malaysia” with answers ranging from Malay Dominance, Supremacy of People, Tidak Tahu and No Response, refer to the chart below

Observed from the Total Sample size of 527 respondents, Merdeka output shows that 46% supports Malay Dominance and 45% support Supremacy of the People. If one care to look deeper in the numbers if 52% out of 408 Malays and 1% of 119 Chinese said yes to Malay Dominance the total number of yes out of 527 respondents is actually 213 people which makes up 40.48% and if 94% of 119 Chinese said yes to Supremacy of People supported by 38% of 408 Malays then the total number of respondents to Supremacy of People is 50.65%.(94% x 119 + 38% x 408 = 266 people)

THAT is A HUGE difference from the original 46% and 45% respectively (Yo!!! Merdeka Center lu orang belajar campur tolak ke dulu….validate lah output first before releasing to general public…nasib baik ade monyet ni nak check data lu).

Other parts of the survey I find interesting is the sample size of 527. Two general formulae exist to calculate the correct sample size. One calculates the sample size when estimating averages and the other is used when estimating proportions or percentages. The formula used for estimating proportions should be used anytime you’re interested in a percentage, e.g. the proportion of registered voters who plan on voting for a certain candidate.

The general formulae based on proportions are as follows

zα/2 represents the number of standard deviations relative to the mean of the standard normal curve corresponding to the level of confidence.

The Margin of Error is a value added to and subtracted from the estimate which establishes an interval which interval contains the true population parameter, given a certain level of confidence.

P is the a prior assumption of the population parameter. If no information is available p should be assumed to be 0.5

So in the case of Kuala Terengganu

Say now we wish to estimate the proportion of registered voters who plan on voting for a particular candidate and we want a confidence level of 90% with a Margin of Error of ±3%. A prior survey (or actual voting result) shows that 49.96% out of 82.45% or 41.18% of registered voters selected the winning party. The current population of registered voters in KT is 80,229. What is the minimum sample size that is required?

D = (0.03%)^2/1.645^2 = 0.00033

N = 80,229

P= 0.4118

1-P = 0.5882

Minimum sample size should be at least = 80,229 (0.5882)/[(80228)(0.00033)+0.4118(0.5882)= 1766 respondent




Anyway back to my favorite word mamihlapinatapai whatever the outcome of Kuala Terengganu I hope that both parties look into their common grounds in which PAS and UMNO can work together for the Malay and Muslim Ummah of Malaysia

Selamat Ngundi Ore Gannu!!!!!

Kalu ikut perspective ore kelate , ore gannu ni pelek sikit, nasi dage cayo putih guano weh abe, kito buat batik demo buat jugok ambo surrender kain sonket ajo weh hok lain kelate is THE BEST!!!!!!!!!!!

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Folks let me know what u need for mumbo-jumbo pseudo intellectual bullshit crap...a simple hello would be great....n thank u for droppin more thing...ANON's please put a nick ya, susah want to address u ....n it also show that u r responsible for what u wanna say....

Minds are like parachutes; they work best when open. -Lord Thomas Dewer