How much did u draw last from the ATM? How long did it last? On what did u spend ?
As for me, the first one is NO and I have no clue on the next 3.......
My solution nowadays is that my wife holds the ATM card and I ask for my money from her...
So now imagine how the government spend its money..........
We know how much they plan to spend......but do we know how they are actually spending it
What kind of transparency are they planning to offer us the TAXPAYERS!!!! (satD is not a Malaysian Tax resident anymore..but is very concerned about this issue)
I search high and low at the official sites on information regarding the First and Second Stimulus package....and the best i could find is this
Now let us look at America.....
They have a specific website called Recovery.gov to monitor the implementation of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 Initiatives. It allows for every stakeholders to monitor the actual implementation of the planned initiatives and evaluate the impact to the economy in general......you can check out the site, its still in its infancy but i expect for it to grow once the data from the respective agencies are in.......
We've also heard of the creation of Project Management Unit to "oversee and manage the disbursement of funds and work carried out under the stimulus package".......so far i know nuts about them and how they plan to do their job and the level of transparency they plan to offer us their ULTIMATE tukang bayar gaji
Ahhhhh............can we have a similar approach as to the American Version.....
Kalau tak cukup duit gua boleh tolong buat website...pakai blogspot pun takpe la as long as we get the required information about how u r spending the money
I'm surprised on the magnitude but truly welcome it, as I have been promoting before here
Cursory note....tak habis bace lagi ni....one initiative prop up
Financial Guarantee Institution-quote from budget speech
"Under the current market conditions, even companies with investment grade ratings are unable to access the capital market, particularly the bond market. To assist and facilitate these companies access the bond market, the Government will establish a Financial Guarantee Institution to provide credit enhancement to companies that intend to raise funds from the bond market. This measure will also further develop the domestic bond market. Bank Negara Malaysia will assist in the setting up of this institution. This government-owned company will have an initial paid-up capital of RM1 billion, which will subsequently be raised to RM2 billion. It is expected that bonds totalling RM15 billion will be raised under this facility."
Why can't these function be in the hands of say CGC by amending its scope of services to cover this new requirement...instead of creating a new GLC? Back in 2001 Amanah Capital was trying to set up a similar outfit called the Malaysian National Financial Guarantee Insurer tapi takde hasil.
Why can't this be done via development of Collateralized Loan Obligation Market with some form of credit wrap by existing institutions such as banks? Our banks have always been active in Bond Guarantee Market....
One thing about guarantee, it distorts the perception of risk and affects pricing, we saw what happened in America when the risk became too concentrated
I hate duplication of resources, especially if it involves RM 2 Billion of capital.
Flashback...to satD's first job after coming back from UK....(this part in black n white -if this was indonesian sinetron)
On my first day at work in the dealing room as a Currency Trader....i was at lost as to what in the world was happening, loud voices shouting prices from a number of "voice boxes" aka your typical computer speakers attached to a dedicated telco line where currency brokers miles away repeatedly updates the market.....each voice belongs to a specific broker linked to a button where the dealer needs to know who is quoting the best bid and best offer.....at the same time one has to look at the screen for latest news feeds on economic issues and markets in general...so this is multi-tasking your brain at the highest order, split second decision on whether to buy or sell a position requires computation of the events as it is happening and also knowing which hot key button on the telephone console will contact the broker with the best price for execution (i did not know how to use the phone on day one and could not even call my mum to let her know that i was OK)
Anyway folks, from Feb 97 up till June 97 our Ringgit was actually appreciating with a target to go around 2.45 to a dollar….the yen was also appreciating from 145 to 110 yen against USD….this was the trigger point, the Thais are known to have a Huge exposure to cheap Yen borrowing and all of sudden their obligation to the yen loans increased significantly, everybody took the bet, including all our local banks, but we were small players as BNM put an Open Position Limit (How much open exposure one can take against another currency) of up to MYR 50 Million per institutions….
Regionally everybody was on the same bandwagon…It was such a simple bet ..just BUY… nothing to think about anymore( or if the hedge funds buys ..double that just ride the trend), the fundamentals does not support the trend anymore…….So everybody went from one currency to another testing historical resistance on a daily basis from July 97…lets see at what level the Central bankers start to throw their hard earned reserves….anyway all of us knew exactly how much bullets(reserve) they have to start with….BNM went in around 2.5250 for 3 days which was a psychological barrier to the market then….i think we lost around 3 to 4 billion defending that level……direct impact immediately was a squeeze in the Interbank Money Market (MYR Based) sending Overnight Interest rate to 50% from 5% (satD had to be temporarily positioned in the Money Markets team to assist as the dealers there never saw volatility of that magnitude)
Inter-bank money market is the lifeblood of the financial system once participants loses confidence and stop lending the whole system can breakdown in a few weeks….Foreign banks (I’d rather not name them) cut all credit lines to the Local Banks this systematically compounded the liquidity effect and created a 3 tier lending system (Good Local Bank Vs Foreign banks, Foreign Vs Foreign, Local Vs Local)..the Central Banks stepped in daily for months to correct the imbalances, a number of local banks were technically insolvent borrowing from the lender of last resort on a daily basis to meet its obligations….
if i can divert a bit to a case in Hong Kong years before 97, HSBC was facing a run.. all retail depositors were literally taking money out from its branches n putting them into Standard Chartered next door….guess what the folks in SCB did …they pass the money back thru the backdoor to HSBC to ensure that they have enough money to maintain confidence…..that spirit clearly did not exist in 1997 in KL ….all foreign institutions technically stop having any further exposure to local counterparts…..and the local retail depositors (typical herd mentality) began withdrawing the money from local banks n started queuing in foreign banks…they literally had to take a number to deposit money……
Now back to the FX market, our daily turnover then was around 250- 300 Million USD prior to the attack(This is so small compared to the size of financial institutions who were betting against us) …..throughout July 97 to Sept 98 volumes dwindled…markets was so thin….daily bid n offer spreads widen significantly it wasn't to hard to move the market by 1000 basis point…if u wanted to…A number of agents of intervention were roped in namely Petronas, MLNG, Maybank, Bank Bumi….some were selling dollars daily ..n some were lending on behalf on BNM into the market……
I could still remember watching Tun M live in Hong-Kong when he bantai Soros and currency traders in general....first thing I said was Tun ni well informed ke? cause FX positions are typically reported by the local traders (Commercial Banks) to the respective central banks and in Malaysia in particular we have the Form P and Form R for all trades exceeding 50,000 MYR equivalent…..so simple disclosure of why one need to buy or sell USD against MYR……in this counter parties to the trades will provide basic info ……hedge funds typically trades on leverage with trading lines provided by the counterparty banks hence the names that would appear in our (BNM) disclosure would never ever be hedgefunds. So to point the finger against hedge funds n namely Soros would be just a wild guess without any credible facts....
Starting from April 98 the policy makers began studying how the market operates from a total view perspective….look at where the leakages are….and put a plug to it….as u all know by now the key measures were - Fix Ringgit, Stop all Offshore Trading of MYR, Stop CLOB…….but the high interest rate n liquidity shortage was too much to handle for our local corporate who borrowed purely with real estate collateral to finance more real estate development…..n some were sneaky enough to slip past proper credit check to provide “inflated speculative shares” as collateral……..hence the creation of Danaharta to relieve the banks of the NPL’s (and this was after BNM reclassified NPL from 6 months to 3 months) and Danamodal to pump in more capital into banks………
Overall i think we did really well with some help from Consultants/Advisors, carefully crafting tactical countermeasures to restore confidence n provide stability to the market. After the counter measures were in, BNM systematically flooded the market with more ringgit by reducing the Statutory Reserve requirement from 12.4% to 4% this money used to be placed in BNM earning 0% is now out into the system… local currency interest rate plummeted and BNM technically had to borrow back the money to ensure a positive real interest rate environment…this was the environment of cheap money which we have been experiencing since 98…n the boom in the bond markets up till a few years back.
Fast Forward (Now in color as per typical sinetron)
The world is now facing a global financial crisis from the eruption of the Sub-prime fiasco originating from North America.
The magnitude of the crisis is still a running number, with an unknown bottom, to a point economist world wide are now questioning the working of the system in which they have been promoting for years. Some are becoming prophet of doom in their view of the evolving situation
In Emerging Europe, a full fledged Currency and Banking Crisis is evolving which will eventually trigger a potential Sovereign Debt Defaults in a some of these countries......this will eventually drive capital fast out of these countries triggering further "flight to quality" back into Dollar Assets. IMF is already in some of these countries and guess what folks they are perscribing CURRENCY CONTROLs as a standard measure
satD asks himself why the fuck does this flight to quality keep going back to where the original problem started...takde benda lain nak invest ke? Reality is that the Dollar remains the world reserve asset and should this status ends that would be the end of America's world power.
satD now have a few question to ask Madam Governor and DG MI
1. Have you not been lending USD into the local markets way before the recent crisis? and How much money have you spend for smoothing activities in FX Market? read here for more details
2. Do you think Government should consider the option of fixing our currency - as this measure would provide a stability in doing business both domestically and internationally
3. What good does a volatile Ringgit do for the Malaysian Economy in general? And How much money do you want to waste our hard earned reserves for smoothing activities?
Currency speculators smells blood miles away like sharks in the ocean, and the nature of the market itself being the most liquid allows for ease of entry and exit in very large position. How long do you think before they start coming over just to test your ability? They are running out of things to invest globally and currency markets offers the safest most liquid position option.
satD says Fixed the Ringgit before its too late, and we can focus on other things and have greater control on our liquidity environment. Do not add another problem to the mess that we are facing.
As with any screwing session.....there are core basic principles one must follow.....it is not a simple as riding a bicycle....plus never seen any porn involving any bicycles...cars and motorcycles yes....but never bicycles.
Our biggest problem now is our Big Momma is not feeling too well....not just her...other Big Mommas around her is pretty sick as well........come to think of it that blondie biatch from America is in ICU now......
So how do you screw a sick lady.......
Principle 1 : TIMELY
You need to do it a soon as possible to ensure that she gets the much needed dosage of love, you cannot ding dong around the parliament or within the Halls of MOF to decide on when to do it.
Principle 2 : LARGE
Give her a big dose of Lurveee.........if you expect the drop in demand to be large...then pound her hard......wake her up from the slumber.....
Principle 3 : LASTING
How long do you think this sickness of Big Momma is gonna last?...If you expect that it's gonna be a long one, you must be prepared for a well spread out action......not a quick one....do it in a series and waves.......you must make sure that we can survive the incoming bad weather ahead
Principle 4 : DIVERSIFIED
As we all know by now that Big Momma is Sooo BIG.....hence there is so much uncertainty regarding which measures will be most effective.....
So what do you do?........To me LAYERING is key......there are various layers inside Big Momma, this can only be known thru the BOGEL process in my previous post....find out every possible areas which you can play with....and know their multiplier effect to satisfy Big Momma
Principle 5 : CONTINGENT You must also give us the confidence that you can still FUCK her if needed.....if you say that you've got no more bullets....how in the world are we gonna have any confidence in your ability to take care of Big Momma.......
In such that I would actually demand that the Government GIVE us the full confidence that further action WILL be taken, if needed....in writing NOW.
Principle 6 : COLLECTIVE
Since every Big Momma around the world is sick......then everyone that have the ability to stimulate should use it given the global impact of the downturn .........
Principle 7 : SUSTAINABLE
This is the most tricky part, how can we AVOID debt explosion in the long run while MITIGATING the adverse effects in the Short Run...........
So all of you in the respective agencies put your monkey brain together and come up with something that can get us through this...........
Do not get sidelined with all this jumping frog circus......
I had too much tea this week…….dah nak sembelit ni
"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people” -Elanor Rossevelt
Today lets discuss people, events and ideas……
Lets start with people……
How do you feel if a group of people collaborate to deceive you of the value of a transaction, and because of their action we have badly designed infrastructures that was supposed to solve a particular problem?Or abusers of a policy that was supposed to help? Or those who hoard goods to inflate the price of some of your daily needs?...dan macam macam lagi
To me they are rapists of value…..
Some known to you…………..some are not…..
At the end of it, a lot of people are raped of the true value…..
some people actually compete using the value they stole from us to have the ability to become the top rapist ………..
Corruptions inflates value for the benefit of few and sufferings of many….they rape us …day in day out..its as simple as that....
Do you like being raped daily?...
If you don’t then you must do something about it now…….
That sure to me looked like a bunch of rapist defending other rapist of value……..
Perangai macam ni memang buat malu orang Melayu aje beb….
Terus terang…kelam kabut….Sedar sikit brader
To me there's nothing much to discuss about ideas….perhaps just one....if you don't mind
MACC ni pulak bingai gile….they should have employed all available technology to get to the masses for information about corruption……..
Information moves freely nowadays…..a thumb drive the size of 2G can be as light as a feather in you pockets…….how many files do you think can fit in them………
There’s this initiative by Wiki for quite sometime…. it allows people to upload files containing corruption, abuses etc etc……..
The problem is people are scared of passing the information in the current MACC approach as it is so easy to PIN point those who have access to them….the number can be less than 10 sometimes…….or people in the know who had witnessed the event could only be just 3 or 4……how la?
Lu bole guarantee ke gua tak kena kantui....
Anyway back to people.....
Folks you cant go on makan duit haram and feed your family with it…you just need to do what is right….stop the economic rape on you…….say enough is enough…come forward please
Maybe u can start by sending them your thumb drive....make sure there is no digital trail to your computer as well check under file properties or last saved...careful on the tiny bits of info...
Remember how the mechanism that lead to the crisis......securitisations
Do not be afraid of it, done properly can be very very profitable.....
In 1998, after the ringgit was fixed I left the FX market into the shadowy world of reinsurance investment banking.....the goal was how to help insurance company in the region to cover the losses arising from equity investments in their books......
We undertook an embedded value analysis on the value of the future receivables of life insurance contracts.....you see when u buy a policy with a long term commitment to pay premium in return for protection..the cashflow becomes more certain...and given the right number of observation you could accurately predict the Claims, the Lapses (those who stop paying), the Withdrawal (those who ask for cash value) , the Premiums, Reserves and Costs.....so all of these goes into computing this Embedded Value that represent the Discounted Potential Profit from a Block of Life Insurance Policy.......
So what we did was we bought this value with some discount of course and took the risk out of their books as well.....hence it classifies as a Reinsurance Contract........they receive an upfront commission.....it kinda work like an asset swap.......
We get a portion of the premium they collect and we share the risk of the policy with them....the interest rate used to discount the cash flow is our expected return......where to get the money to do this?
Securitisation........we package this whole thing...with exposure from the region into an Asset Backed Security........at the end of the deal we were earning around 1500 basis point...
Why did it worked?.........To me risk diversification of the portfolio being securitized.......all kind of people from different background, different race, different religion, different income groups etc etc etc........all these helped us in predicting and pricing the structure properly......
You might be tempted to say that securitisation is bad........no my fren have no fear.....this whole bloody loan securitisation failure stems from the lack of data on Credit Risk......Not enough experience......and poor transparency by the originators and the gatekeepers (rating agency)
Did you know that all the fancy mumbo jumbo BIS II Internal Model for Credit Risk depends on the probability of default which is measured as an Annual Observation........How many years back did the BLOODY Banks start collecting this data?????
Credit Risk Models requires proper validation and backtesting of results....if you need to validate the model you will need say 250 Observation (if you follow the logic in Market Risk Models) so to do that you will need data for 250 Years looking back and that would be data from 1759.
Now what to do? who got data that far back.......so they all kencing us with statistical jargon like monte carlo simulation.......and the rest as you know it...is this bloody crisis (i'll write more about what i think on the causes of the crisis).....
Insurance industry on the other hand got data running for at least a hundred years.....we have tables for mortality and lapses based on the consolidated claims and experience data of the Industry... but not all country have their own table......some use an adjusted table....like kali 1 setengah on the original table......
Anyway....enough foreplay.....lets screw.....with love of course....you do not hate fuck big momma...... you fuck her with love......
FUCK PROJECT 1
Crunchy Loans For the Rakyats....
Initiate a retail personal loans programs to all Malaysian who have GOOD records in the BNM CCRIS Database.........all individual affected (i still dont know how to define this yet) can apply an amount equivalent to 6 months salary BUT there must be a cap on the maximum value........
All Banks will participate in the programs to offer Crunchy Loans to their customers...
The Government will provide Credit Protection and Initial Funds to kick start the Programs....
So you tell the bank how much you are willing to pay and for how long...they can then work out how much can be lent......if you need more than you apply for credit protection from the Government.........if you need even more then you rope in your kids into this...make it an inter-generational loan........if needed....
For those who are not inside BNM CCRIS database, they can apply for full credit protection from the government- as to what the minimum conditions i also don't know, maybe we need to go down to the society level i.e. Masjid, Churches, Temples etc to add an additional monitoring tool as well as for these institutions to 'vouch' for the applicant.
You then MUST PROMISE to PAY BACK the MONEY........sumpah with your own respective HOLY SCRIPTURES........so now you will default against your GOD if you cabut lari and don't pay...... berdosatu........Remember folks....
Given the fact that the whole country may be applying then the Risk can be very diversified...attach the Unemployment Policy to these loans and perhaps some health cover as well
What the Government do next is to securitise the receivables(This can be done via a SPV which uses Cagamas as its administrator) into the Retail Crunchy Loan Backed Government Guaranteed Bonds which can qualify as Reserve Assets for Banks.........with rates this low..please pass it to the rakyat.....we can spend the money you idiot....
This can also solve the issue of bank takut to lend to retail...hopefully...
The act of stimulating means something gets stimulated and if you are faced with the gargantuan task of stimulating the economy you must know what makes it tick to start with….cause if you push the wrong button nothing happens……
So where do we begin….and remember folks there is no majic blue pill here, you must think of it like pleasuring a lady......mmm……start with getting to know her deeply, her sweet spots…have proper foreplay and do not RUSH into the main course……premature ejaculation is the worst thing…..like they say buat membazir benih aje
Step One…….Getting to know Ms Economy and how she wants to be satisfied……
Ms Economy is one big momma….made up of so many different components…like the human body it is one of the most complex systems with so many unexplored components…
At the same time this Big Momma also has a lot of living organisms in it, who are the eventual stakeholders that is interested in her well being……
What are these organisms? What do they need from her to feel good and stay alive as long as she is at a certain levelof health….some die more quickly that others….…..
These organisms comprises of Individuals, Entrepreneurs, Companies, Government etc etc….and the Foreign Counterparts who wants to trade with us…..and all of them have different perspective as to what constitute the creation, preservation and destroyers of value
Hoh……now what is Value to Big Momma?
Is it working 18hours a day and earning 6-7 figures or working 12 hours and earn 5/4 figures with time to spend with your family……or is it having a a large bunch of our workforce working as legoland assemblers for foreign manufacturers…..or to have more and more small time entrepreneurs into a diversified cottage industry distributed across the country…or is it to have our own homegrown global technology company, or is it to find the cure for Cancer…...or is it the cost of doing business, bla, bla bla,bla…. or what ever la….bersepah sepah gua pun malas nak analyse in detail…..BUT the Key is to define a Common Theme of Value that will make Big Momma cum big time with the large part of her living organism within the ecosystem jumping for joy
This is where the DELICATE Balancing ACT by the Man of the Moment (Minister of Finance) is so crucial….what are his objectives (does it represent our collective needs?), does he wants to have a quicky one nite stand or does he wants to slow dance this lady….and put her in heat……..so that other dudes out there would be queuing for their turn to screw this big momma…..
What is it that we are chasing currently? Short Term gains and Artificial Value Preservation or do we want to plan for longer term returns by strategically investing into specific key growth enablers of our economy for it leap into the next level of its evolution.....
Step Two …….BOGEL
Strip down Ms Economy to understand her critical value drivers…..start from the macro perspective and go deeper into the micro perspective……micro factors are always a subset of the macro factors…..understand the connectivity and overall value chain
Find out which sector in the economy are value creators and value destroyer….then only we can understand all the potential interactions and connectivity…..
We must draw our collective experience to do that…. those working in the market s during the 97-98 crisis periods had the experience of watching and learning a crisis…..you were challenged to think of how can you avoid these again …….and if you remember the policy makers interacted more with the man on the street……..
Most countries have Early Warning Systems after the 97-98 Crisis (One of the Good IMF Recommendations to the borrowing countries) implemented in their respective Central Banks, SC and MOF….Do we have one operating to assist the Policy Makers ????????
This is the time FOR COLLECTIVE ACTION in the parliament……………..and the WHOLE BLARDY COUNTRY…… consolidate our political differences and work together……Political parties have an extensivebranch network who knows people on the ground in different segments of the Economy……
BEGIN interacting with the WHOLE country….not about politics but about the economy …you will understand the problems better at the local, districts, state and eventually the Federal level…..
And to those of you who know for a fact that you can contribute…..please do…..apelah sangat modal….a few minutes surfing and couple of keyboard clicks…….or maybe answering a survey honestly….
I was proud once being a Malaysian abroad……these days I just shrug my shoulder with a facial expression before answering a question about the situation in Malaysia…i can't even hide my body language anymore..
This is the time folks to regain that feeling that you get when someone in the future says…look at how the Malaysians did it……
Which is why first WE MUST COLLECTIVELY BELIEVE THAT WE CAN GET THOUGH THIS……
We must also consolidate regionally to understand how our resource utilization, mobility and intra-ASEAN trade so that we can come up with harmonized initiatives……………….
One thing about harmonized countermeasures, it can be dangerous especially in fast moving markets, cash especially….confidence must be at all times maintained to avoid a LIQUIDITY CRISIS into our system..
I’m hoping that we could also see greater coordination among regional regulators…too much talk shop crap at ASEAN (Kalau nak pergi shopping baik tak payah...membazir duit rakyat hantar lu pergi meeting......terbang tak sampai 2 jam bayar ticket mahal gile!! kiiiiimak lu )
Step Three…..Foreplay
Once you know more about this Big Momma….you start stroking her where she likes it….make her tinggle….naik bulu roma kinda thing…………
this is where “Specific Policies and Counter Measure” and Perhaps Fiscal Incentives are given…………if she doesn’t react…….and still feels pretty dry….go to step four..
Step Four….Lubrication
Lubrication…….to get it moving....at the right spots of course....
And in the case of the economy…….MONEY either directly from the Man of the Moment or he makes it easy to get it from other sources such as financial intermediaries, cooperative societies and agencies etc……
I would prefer if the government focuses on making it easy to get the money from private sources….you of all people can win the contest of diversified risk and you can also print money…….
Why can’t The Govt increase its Credit Risk Guarantee to selected segment of the economy to help assist the confidence of Bankers??.... I think RM 2 Billion is small…we need more…BUT make sure there is proper limit on Individual Exposure to ensure that you are not too overly exposed….strategic national interest OK……no problem……..proxies a big NO NO…..if you need to take an strategic exposure from a proxy make sure you are transparent in the valuation…..NO MARKET BASED RULE SHOULD APPLY…YOU NAME THE PRICE…..NOT THEM….
AND GET THE BLOODY BANKS TO LEND…..if they don’t achieve the target lending… borrow back at ZERO Interest as PENALTY to those GREEDY Shareholders….you can calculate this at the end of the year in the form of SRR adjustment…with compound interest please
Step Five…….The Screw….
Main Man…..you need to conserve your bullets….can’t keep on pumping forever…and with your pancut cepat strategies….there is a huge possibility that a large chunk of the Billions you want to spend quickly may go to waste……….
Things to Avoid
Too Much Wanking…………………………..Do not succumb to the temptation of printing too much money…..you will destroy value even further……..
If she does not cum…restart foreplay focusing at other parts of her…this is one long session we gonna have……
To BNM if MOF is an Idiot just say so please…..this time I think you know better than rest out there….
FX Volatilities are increasing…..please keep an eye out on our Ringgit please……don’t waste too much on intervention …sayang tu…..quick question what If you move a large part of our reserves to Gold Markets and other Central Banks follow suit…..and you all clear with one another with Synthetic Gold?
One last thing sebelum gua lupe…..does anyone know about Project Crinis??? I think they’ve got good recommendations there….to help with the leakages in Big Momma….
FOLKS: If you want to comment click the topic hyperlink then only the comment form will load (i'm still figuring out this bug with Intense debate)
Are these newly "conceived" projects by CONsultants? if so, how is the tender and allocation procedure? If you wanna spend fast, are you sure that there is ZERO leakage to corruption? (Imagine flies and shit....folks, or the more polite semut and gula)
What is the "expected"Multiplier effect of these project to the Economy?
How can these "projects" help our economy and the rakyat in general?
Are we chasing short-term returns that does not create real value from a competitive perspective?
What is our "thing" actually these days? What drives investors or bankers to fuel the engine of growth?
FOLKS: If you want to comment click the post title hyperlink then only the comment form will load (i'm still figuring out this bug with Intense debate-wrote to them a few days already..no response so far)
How many fresh graduates are entering the job market this year, and the next, and the next? What in the world are they studying now? Would that little piece of paper bring any value to them? Or should they start learning new skills to prepare them for survival in the years to come?
What sector runs the highest risk of unemployment in Malaysia? What are the drivers of unemployment in these sectors?
All these questions bring about some memories in 1999, I was in Europe designing a product for one the largest global bank operating there, they wanted to hedge the risk of potential defaults by borrowers should they become unemployed...we studied detail unemployment data of various region in Europe and came up with an insurance product tied to the loan exposure. In the event that the borrower is retrenched then the insurance policy takes over to cover his installments for 6 or 12 months depending on the policy terms and condition.
In 2000, Malaysia claims that we do not need Unemployment Insurance because we have "full employment" - Ni betul2 Luncai mentality....social infrastructure requires proper planning pakcik, it is about preparing for a potential risk and providing the right safety net for your rakyat.
What if, after 1997-98 crisis, we had put in another component of Social Infrastructure whereby the Employers Contribute to a Pooled Fund, with a small element of Employee contribution. And all insurance company can participate into this fund to offer protection to the workforce. Would we be better prepared to handle what is coming?
Risk if well managed can be a good thing, and risks requires redistribution to reduce its impact to the overall economy.....right now this risk is with the Man on the Street with No tools to Hedge against the incoming tide of bad news..........(i met someone during my KL trip last Dec, he was from KT, came to KL to work for a LCD factory, lost his job 2 months ago, cant go back to KT, now doing odd job in KL......and guess what....he's Malay! How many more are out there? )
It is the Malay who will first suffer should the economy contracts further you IDIOT..yes you the GOVERNMENT who champions affirmative action-stop bickering and start coming out with a Nationwide solution covering the whole demographics, and while you're at it don't forget the foreign workers as well, make sure they get their gaji if they get fired
Retraining assistance when someone is struggling to pay his bills, installments, children food does not mean much..........if we do not have such tools to help them on a day to day basis while they find work then expect rising social issues to deal with....
2. MAHB Charges lower for Airasia and get its traffic in KLIA
3. Rope in ERL as well as transportation partners - Vouchers can then be given to passengers to accommodate discounts to services if needed (some of AirAsia KL-KLIA Bus services should relocated to other routes)
4. Increase travel agents on site (KLIA + KLSentral) via Kiosks with full booking facilities
Err what else..ah...mmm.......lets start with these first if possible.....can be done free of duit rakyat actually...and no waste in value....there's no point in building something that does not add value to the existing infrastructure.....
Dulu lu nak bukak bank kena kencing dengan Repco Lau sampai bungkus, Bank Negara had to rescue u...BAHLUL!!!!!! adeke bagi loan banyak gile with the most speculative second board counter as collateral...memang bangang bahlul bingai....(folks help me out with stupid in B's if there is more ya)
Lu ape cite nak masuk Health Care? Dah la specialised gile punye health care? Lu ade experience ke(i hear horror stories from SJMC)? Your BOD and Management would probably got experience as PATIENTS but NOT MANAGEMENT....i hope you all get a heart attack (astarafirullah hanaazim...i'm sorry god)
Anyway couple of quick question (Gua belum research lagi so may be redundant)
1. Is this a "Real Estate" play on your side? Your main goal is to get the LAND to be developed together with the surrounding areas?
2. Who got the Land for the Relocation of Hospital Besar Kuala Lumpur? is this a single package?
3. Does IJN need to be in Central KL or Is it possible for a specialised heart hospital to be in a more relaxed area closer to nature (in one of your land banks) so that patients can recuperate in a more condusive environment, with more cheaper accomodation for longer term care instead of being Godsmack in downtown KL. And IF THIS IS SO, WHY DIDNT YOU SAY THIS OUTLOUD AND BUILD THE REPLACEMENT SITE FIRST IN RETURN FOR THE LAND OF IJN
Kalu lu nak Kencing Gua on this, and if you get to kencing EPU, i hope your whole family get a heart attack so that you can manage them in your newly "acquired" hospital
MOF please separate the Land Deal with the operation and management of IJN, I know you need to sell assets to cover for the deficit...but this is a SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE which i am pretty proud of and should not be in the hands of a Private Enterprise.
Astrarafirulalha Hanazim.....Sime lu buat gua dapat dosa sia-sia aje maki lu pagi pagi ni
BURSA DOWN KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 24 (Bernama) -- Trading on Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd is suspended for the afternoon session following a technical problem with its trading system.
In a statement, the exchange operator said the derivatives market will, however, continue to trade as normal but there will not be any underlying KLCI feed for the FKLI (futures) and OKLI (options) trading.
All market participants have been duly notified and will be updated periodically of the progress.
Bursa Malaysia is investigating the problem and will notify the market of any updates.
-- BERNAMA
No need to say much about this one....how many times already this year...
Exchanges mission critical trading system is supposed to operate in a "Hot Back Up" i.e. building real time redundancies when your main system is down, the other one will automatically take over to ensure continuous trading activity, and if that goes down, your remote backup will take over, within a few hours.
Which heads will roll this time around? Last time i "heard" that they did not follow proper procedure to bring the system up.....
Exchanges which operate in a monopoly situation typically have the "monopolistic" mentality that "its OK ,they still have to use us"......wake up Bursa!!!, the financial world is changing and you must have proper system to support the development of our Capital market and to instill market confidence that Malaysian Capital Market Infrastructure meets minimum international standards.
YUSLI YUSOFF....you know what to do......Give Malaysia our Christmas Present............RESIGN Now
Woi....Lu Bingai Ke.....mane pakcik dapat ini idea...sambil berak ke?...it's shitty you idiot
Fact
1.Exchange trading of securities requires a clearing function or a central counter-party who will step in to reduce risk of transaction among various trading members.
2. Central Counterparties are exposed to the potential risk of default in the delivery of the security in a sales transaction or the payment of cash in the purchase transaction
Your bright idea will bring in more risk to the central counterparty who now needs to clear transaction in multiple currencies....who will bear the risk i ask you.....how will investors agree on what rates to use to settle the transaction at T + whatever la (Assuming final position will only be known at the end of trading day), they then need to contact their bankers respectively to book for the rates to settle the FX transaction of the Securities Purchase or Sales transaction
Will there be an arbitrage (Can i buy in USD and sell in Ringgit and Make a profit from the movement in currencies instead of the share price movement) between the domestic prices and "other currencies" prices in any particular moment during the trading hours on a single exchange which you claim the whole world will converge because of your idea?....Great idea you have sir.....its so great that Mr Alfred Nobel will wake up from his grave to hand you the award himself......
Do you even remember our problem during 1997-98 when domestic securities was priced and traded in two different location and currencies? Remember CLOB..... you SOB!!
What if our domestic investors now lose complete confidence in our Ringgit and only want to trade in Euros.....how will that affect our Reserves position and Balance of Payments?
What happened to all the Tingkat Advisors? Tak kan la basic shit like this also cannot advise your ministers.......SC and BNM please shut this idiot up.....you all must have a single voice especially in Market Development Activities
Malas siut ..peace people got to get back to work now.....
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 12 — History will be made soon when the Terengganu state government sets up its own RM10 billion sovereign wealth fund, the first state in Malaysia to do so and a move aimed at ensuring steady revenue after the oil and gas money dries up.The decision to set up the Terengganu Investment Authority — a body to be run solely by professionals — is also an indictment of the unsatisfactory manner royalty funds from oil and gas have been used by politicians for the last two decades. The Malaysian Insider has learnt that the proposal for a sovereign wealth fund was put forward by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin, who is also the Ruler of the east coast state. The state exco endorsed the proposal at its weekly meeting yesterday. Political observers say that the decision to set up the authority is probably driven by the desire to ensure that royalty from oil and gas is spent wisely and in the long-term interest of the state, and not squandered on flashy projects. While the oil and gas resources in the state have not been tapped fully, concerns have been raised that insufficient emphasis has been placed on how to maximise the royalty payments.
Under the TIA, the Sultan of Terengganu will be the chairman of the Board of Advisors. The Menteri Besar of the state will also be represented on this board. But the Board of Directors will comprise only professional managers. The idea here is to ensure that investment decisions are made by professionals and without the interference of politicians. Sources in the state said that RM10 billion will be invested both within Terengganu and also the rest of Malaysia. But the TIA will also have a mandate to invest globally. The RM10 billion will be sourced from the local and foreign capital markets with a proposal for the Federal Government to provide a government guarantee of up to RM5 billion. As a measure of long-term sustainability, TIA will continue to reinvest its profits to generate higher growth. Dividends will be declared to the state of Terengganu and its partner investors.
KUALA LUMPUR: Fed-up with years of abuse on the annual oil royalty it gets, the Terengganu state government is channelling its share of the oil money to a proposed RM10 billion fund that will invest in and outside the country. The fund, called the Terengganu Investment Authority (TIA), is styled after the sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East. It will be managed and supervised by a team of professionals and the chairman will be the Sultan himself. Under the proposal, which was approved by the state exco two days ago and mooted by the Sultan who is also the King, the funds that are to be raised will be backed by cash flow from the oil royalty the state gets from Petronas annually. The amount of royalty that Terengganu gets from Petronas is not disclosed publicly. Based on reports, between March 2004 and 2007, the state government had supposedly received RM7.3 billion. However, it has been brought up in parliament that the amount received by the state is only RM5.2 billion.
Sources said that under the proposal, the fund will also get a RM5 billion guarantee from the federal government, which should further reduce the risk of the papers raised.“By virtue of the funds being raised are backed by cash flows from Petronas, the papers to be issued by TIA should get good ratings. The cost of raising the funds should be low despite the challenging environment,” says a source, adding that TIA would also be declared a tax-exempt company. Investors for the RM10 billion fund are expected to be drawn from local and foreign capital markets.
To ensure that the state’s development budget is not severely impacted by the channelling of the oil royalty to TIA, a portion of the dividends would go to the state. “Apart from investing locally and abroad, the fund will also be tasked with luring strategic international investment back to Terengganu,” said the source. It is learnt that TIA was mooted by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin to ensure that the state channels sufficient funds to long-term ventures that would provide sustainable income to continue to drive economic growth, even when revenue from oil royalty drops.“The ruler wants the state’s wealth to be managed prudently and professionally so that the future prosperity of the state can be safeguarded,” said the source.
Holy Cow!!!!
Lets start with some basic facts first.
1. Terengganu is not Sovereign from a Credit Risk Perspective, try getting a rating and see if the state can get a AAA to start with......in the world of finance only the Federation of Malaysia holds the sovereign risk in the peninsula and a Sovereign Wealth Fund is a fund created typically when you have EXCESS funds that can be managed and you want to diversify from low risk assets into equities and other class of securities...... Conflicting Reports from the Malaysian Insider(Sovereign) Vs The Edge (“styled” as A Sovereign).....huh u either dont know what u talking about or you fail to listen properly to your source...main bantai aje....or your source is bingai...
2. You want to pinjam Petronas Risk via the Securitisation of your future revenue payments which is tied to a very volatile commodity and not only that you want to ask for a Government Guarantee of HALF the Fund size just in case you LOSE money is it?
3. And then you want to raise funds say via the bond market...lets assume you can do a 5 year paper....say if you are lucky to get a Quasy Government risk which should be trading around 3.5%(Khazanah) to 4.7%(Cagamas)........Armed with 10B your "proffesional" team (with what track record???) go around the world (including Terengganu) to invest...and find people to come back to Terengganu to invest. ..... at minimum you must get 5 % per annum to service the bond and pay for expenses....assuming no capital losses.....mmmm .......folks ever heard of ValueCap???? and the various state government mutual funds in the mid 90's.....on top of it you also want to invest in long-term ventures with long gestation period....phew.....lu biar serious beb
4. Why do you want to allow other investors into the Fund?....only rakyat should be allowed What is your investment/portfolio allocation strategy? How will the profit distribution rule be? Entry and Exit Clause to the Fund?...can you supplement our future income instead of us relying on govt-pension or EPF benefits?
Its an interesting idea no doubt but please do not provide any form of Guarantee...i’ve written about this before...its a ticking time bomb
This i think is a good initiative to spur up local state government bond market but may crowd out the local investment scene especially in the areas of private equity with 10Billion potential investable funds, tell you what why dont you do this instead.........
1. Federal Government begins a policy of financial decentralization whereby local governments are given more responsibility in economic management........state governments should no longer be put in an economic “hostage” situation......literally choked of their financing......no can do thats not right.....these are people ....your rakyat who needs them.......
2. State Government are allowed to invest in a number of instruments but must put a cap on Cash (operational cash requirements only) and they should never be allowed to buy Government Bonds as this would technically bring the money back to Federal goverment and it shows that they are not managing the cashflow properly as per their local domestic budgets proposed to the federal government...
3. The economic “freedom” of local governments will also reduce the potential amount of money politics, as people would really vote for the overall capacity of the potential candidates......... especially the economic management capacity which is a key criteria to have the ability to lead our country
4. People in general will then “connect” more with the candidates as his or her performance can be monitored much more closely in the well functioning of a smaller “system”...the good ones among them should then compete at the National Level of Politics.....the best of them should lead the country
5. Start investing in National Unity Programs executed through our “Micro” Society Based Institutions..who knows you and your family and potentially your mother as well...something like a Mosque, Church, Temples....and other apolitical community based organisation......we need to seriously think about finding a solution to the level of polarisation in our society..blogger de minimis mentions of reigniting the rukun tetangga to help solve the escalating crime rate
6. If Terengganu really wants to invest .......start small..just use what you have..do not borrow to invest....let the managers prove to you that they are capable.....or best part do not start your own.....farm out or outsource the money to the BEST MANAGERS IN THE WORLD.....you then evaluate them annually in their portfolio allocation strategies, investment returns and risk profiles.....measure their performance against the original mandate of the Fund.....you only need the Sultan and The State Government to decide on this.....plus you can save some money on hiring “proffesional” managers........invest the local domestic capacity....of if your are really serious find a couple of capable Anak Terengganu to be trained in London or New York with the funds.....sorry this one i cannot apply.......ambo ora kelate.......
Fill in the blanks folks.......................................let me know what you think..........i wanna build a nation.............................what about u? DAULAT TUANKU MIZAN ZAINAL ABIDIN !!!! its been a wonderful few years in seeing how the Royalty play its role in the Nation......thank you, thank you
