Saturday, April 28, 2012

Internal Migration and Electoral Roll Accuracy Rate: A Quick Look at MERAP's 3.1 Million "Preliminary Analysis"

Press Statement By Dr. Ong Kian Ming, Project Director, Malaysia Electoral Roll Analysis Project (MERAP), UCSI University

At least 3.4m cases or about 27% of the electoral roll need to be further investigated The Election Commission (SPR) Chairman, Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof, was reported to have said, during an interview with Sin Chew Daily, that Malaysia’s electoral roll is the “cleanest in the world”. Only 42,000 voters out of a total of 12.6million, or 0.3% of the total electoral roll were considered unverifiable. Obviously the EC chairman has not bothered to look into the preliminary findings of the Malaysian Electoral Roll Analysis Project (MERAP) which were reported and published in Malaysiakini, The Malaysian Insider and Selangor Times over the past two weeks.

In this preliminary analysis, it was found that the 10 initial problems identified in the electoral roll involved approximately 100,000 voters and that this number could easily rise to 400,000 upon further analysis. Today, I want to announce that upon further investigation and analysis, another 3.3million cases of doubtful voters which needs further investigation have been uncovered. Among this 3.3 million voters are: (1) 3.1 million voters whose IC addresses shows a different voting constituency from the constituency in which the voter is actually voting in. (2) 65455 “foreigners” who are on the electoral roll (3) 106,743 cases of deletions and 6762 cases of additions without public display to the electoral roll from Q4 2010 to Q3 2011. The presence of the 3.1 million voters whose IC addresses do not correspond to their voting constituencies is particularly troubling because this information was given to SPR by the National Registration Department / Jabatan Pendaftaran Negar (JPN) in 2002, before the implementation of the new registration system where all voters had to be registered according to the constituency indicated by their IC address. It seems that SPR failed to act on this information that was given by JPN and to use this information to clean up the electoral roll even though the presence of these non-resident voters contravened Article 119 1(b) of the Federal Constitution which says that a voter must be a resident in the constituency which he or she is voting in. In addition, it is also troubling to note that even though SPR keeps detailed records of the “Bangsa” of individual voters, it seems not to be concerned with the presence of more than 65 thousand “foreigners” in the electoral roll who are “Bruneian, Cocos, Filipino, Indonesian, Pakistani” and so on. Of these 65 thousand “foreign” voters, almost 90% or 59 thousand of them have IC numbers which indicate that they were born in Malaysia. Also troubling is the fact that 49 thousand or 75% of these “foreign” voters can be found in the state of Sabah, where problems with foreigners being given fake ICs have been a long documented problem. Finally, through a detailed analysis of the Q4 2010, Q1 to Q3 quarterly updates and the Q3 2011 electoral roll, it was found that there were over 106 thousand voters who were removed without public display and almost 7 thousand who were added without public display. It was also noticed that in the Q4 quarterly update released by SPR to the political parties, many of the details and information that were given in the Q1 to Q3 updates were missing including important information on the reasons for voters being removed from the electoral roll such as death, joining the army / police, losing their citizenship status and so on. The failure of SPR to take any action on these problematic cases, which total 3.4 million thus far, is an indication that they are not serious about tackling the deep rooted problems of the electoral roll, whether these were problems which were created in the past or those problems which are still arising because of abuses of the system in the present time. The preliminary findings of MERAP shows that there are grave concerns about potential irregularities in the electoral roll and that Malaysia is very far from having the cleanest electoral roll in the world. (here)

Amusing "fact finding" there mate.

3.1 Million people.

Is it a shocking observation?

I don't think so, it is pretty expected on us Malaysians.

Data he quoted was in 2002

Let me take you back to 2005 just for some context of the problem

Last Minute Again 30 Dec 2005 KUALA LUMPUR: The National Registration Department’s nightmare has come true – it was a mad rush at all its offices throughout the country. Thousands of Malaysians lined up outside its offices in a last minute effort to apply for their MyKad. With the deadline expiring tomorrow, the crowds came as early as 5am at the Petaling Jaya NRD office and the queue stretched for about a kilometre along Jalan Sultan, while in Penang they were there before 7am. Despite having three years to do so, these procrastinators jammed up the offices, and in some cases gave the overworked NRD staff a harrowing time. At the Kepong NRD branch, a group vented their frustration at not being able to get a number for the day by hurling abuses at the officers. However, the officers kept their cool and advised them to go to other offices where queues were shorter. In a related development, Public Services Department director-general Datuk Seri Ismail Adam advised the counter staff not to be rude or pull a long face although it was the people's fault. “Civil servants should understand by now that Malaysians always like to do things at the last minute,” he told reporters in Putrajaya. (here)

Typical Malaysians....macam sial last minute...monkey included tapi gua lagi lambat 2008 buat 2009 baru pergi ambik....malas dowhs...

That mad rush is because of 20 ringgit fee.....

20 Ringgit....2 pack of fags sanggup beratur macam negara Komunis miskin bangang giler babeng

PUTRAJAYA: Dec 31 is the absolute last day for free MyKad application. Home Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid said there would be no extension to the deadline, so those who applied for MyKad after that date would be levied a fee to be set by the Government. “The amount will be decided next week,” he said, adding that all National Registration Department (NRD) branches would be accepting applications until midnight on Dec 31. It was reported earlier that the application fee for MyKad was expected to be RM20 as the cost of making a MyKad was RM38. Home Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid Azmi said that Malaysians who studied or lived abroad, and those who resided in remote areas of the country and had to travel far to get their MyKad done would be given a reprieve.

As of Dec 27, the number of people who have yet to apply for MyKad was 1,180,208, he said. To prevent the mad rush at NRD offices in the cities, he suggested that the people go to branches outside the Federal Territory and Selangor – such as Kuala Kubu Baru, Sepang and Sabak Bernam – because these outlets are less busy. “I wish to thank NRD staff who have been working late nights since the rush started, forgoing their holidays and not being able to tend to their children who have to go to school next week,” he said. Azmi also said that old identity cards could still be used after Dec 31, adding that the Government had yet to set a date when such ICs would no longer be valid. “The assumption that the old IC cannot be used starting Jan 1 is not true,” he told a press conference at his ministry here yesterday. Asked why the Government had not set the expiry date for old ICs, Azmi said considerations would have to be made such as Malaysians overseas. (here)
As of Dec 27 2005 1,180,208 Malaysian was still holding on to the Old IC.

The NRD Data given to EC was in 2002

Hell it could even be 10 Million now or maybe just a few hundred thousand.

Would Ong Kian Ming of the MERAP project be able to provide an accurate number to be included in its "Reseach Project" Report

To do that MERAP will need the IC Number of All Voter, the Voting Area Location Details and the Address in the IC....

Get the dates of EC Registration by the voter and the Actual Date of the IC Address in NRD DB

I can do that in 10 Minutes via a simple SQL Query if I have access to the Data.

But does MERAP have access to the Data?

That data resides in the system below

Source NRD System White paper here

You seriously think MERAP got the access?

Let us look at another data to understand the magnitude of the problem

First we must look at the data of Internal Migration during prior to NRD giving EC 3.1 Million people with IC Addresses not equal to their Voting Area.

Internal migration in Malaysia is driven primarily due to Rural Urban Movements

Source here

 3.6 Million was tracked as Internal migration in 2000 population census

Do you think they bothered to change their IC and their voting area?

Most of these people are young people in their 20s and 30s then. Got time to notify EC and NRD???

So is 3.1 Million data given by NRD in 2002 (with 1.1 Million still with old IC in 2005) a big problem now?

That "data" that you quoted was 2002.

What is the level of the problem now?

Engage us don't pluck figures from the skykingdom please ya. That part leave to the Bentong Bastard "If the Law is Bad, BREAK IT" (here)

Ask yourselves how many new towns been developed since 2002?

And how big is this population now?

Semua hantu ka Kian Ming ???

I tot you got phd ma? Kasi tunjuk lu punya quality ma.....

Itu bangang punye Ah Beng Cheap Minister pun sudah "quote" lu punya "analysis" go here to read Apek bahlul rants

Zaid Ibrahim was right when he said this

Bersih co-chairman Datuk Ambiga Sreenevasan and Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin recently concluded what some called “The Great Debate” on Bersih 3.0, but the event was held without either of them actual knowing the true state of affairs. That meant it was more about Ambiga and Khairy talking to their own supporters about “facts” they consider convenient, rather than telling the people what the real situation is or engaging in any meaningful debate about our electoral process. Let’s start with the 42,000 voters in the election rolls that have come into question: Khairy considers them to be innocent anomalies but Ambiga cites them as proof of possible fraud by the EC. How will we ever know the actual status of these voters unless we open the EC’s books? This, unfortunately, will not happen as these documents are deemed “sulit.”

Anyway folks is Malaysia really that bad???

Why don't I show you another country and compare Malaysia's "observation"

Source the UK Election Commision Report on Electoral Roll 2011 (here)

The longer you stay there the more accurate the Electoral Roll will be.

That is expected.

Kian Ming being an "academician" should have asked more question

Instead he gave press statement and BERSIH went to town with it.

Well executed misinformation strategy.

I got to hand it to you folks.....dah la the bulk of the BERSIH folks semua bahlul bingai otak letak tepi longkang punya level....

Seriously all surprise me with your kebingaian....

Kian Ming where is your "honesty" as an academician?

Now back to this planned street walking activities in order to congregate at Dataran Merdeka

KUALA LUMPUR, April 27 — Tomorrow’s sit-in protest at Dataran Merdeka will proceed as planned despite a court order declaring the iconic square as off-limits, Bersih 3.0 has said. “The court order only covers Dataran. Bersih won’t break the order or the barriers...we will go as close as we can to Dataran,” Datuk Ambiga Sreenevasan told reporters here. “But we hope that the authorities will show us good faith and let us through, they can still do that,” City police earlier today obtained a court order under Section 98 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CPC) banning any gathering at “Dataran Merdeka and all the land surfaces bordering Jalan Sultan Hishamuddin, Jalan Raja and Jalan Kelab except the area occupied by the Selangor Royal Club.” “Whatever happens, at 2pm, no matter where we are, the sit-down begins, with the singing of the national anthem, Negaraku,” she said to the applause of her fellow Bersih steering committee members. She said approximately 6,000 Bersih volunteers will be deployed around Dataran Merdeka tomorrow to ensure the rally goes smoothly. “They are from PAS’s Unit Amal, DAPSY (DAP Socialist Youth), SAMM (Solidariti Anak Muda Malaysia) and AMK (PKR Youth),” said Hishamuddin Rais, another Bersih steering committee member. “We (will) co-operate with the police. We will not allow any trouble during the rally,” Ambiga pledged. Dataran Merdeka is closed to the public for 48 hours beginning 6am today, as the authorities move to prevent the Bersih 3.0 sit-in in the historic square tomorrow. The move against electoral reform movement Bersih is seen as a sign that the hawks in Putrajaya have won the day despite their confidence that the rally has no traction. KL Mayor Tan Sri Ahmad Fuad Ismail said in a statement that the restriction will be enforced based on Local Government (Dataran Merdeka) (Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur) By-Laws 1992 and section 65 of the Local Government Act 1976. The police have taken a hands-off approach towards the latest rally with DBKL taking the lead role as it runs the square. The city authorities have just evicted a group of activists calling themselves Occupy Dataran this week, two weeks after they set up a daily camp there. A similar order last July galvanised a larger turnout in the capital city, with organisers saying nearly 50,000 gathered to walk past roadblocks and policemen who shut down the city. But police said only 6,000 took part in the rally and nearly 1,700 were arrested. The Najib administration was widely condemned for a clampdown on the demonstration in which police fired water cannons and tear gas into crowds during chaotic scenes that resulted in over 1,500 arrested, scores injured and the death of an ex-soldier. Bersih’s eight demands are: a clean electoral roll, reform to postal voting, the use of indelible ink, a minimum campaign period of 21 days, fair access to the media, the strengthening of public institutions, a stop to corruption, and an end to dirty politics. Pakatan Rakyat has pledged its full support for tomorrow’s rally, promising to mobilise thousands of supporters to attend the event 

Dey Ambiga why assemble at the Mosque? Why not some kuil Hindu?

Cuba lu cita sikit

2 Bijik Masjid tu Beb.....(place of worship is not allowed go here)

I find it strange that the Government is allowing them to do so...

The Police will be put on the spot...

Look at the definitions in the Act

Now look at Section 4

Fine line.......

How will our Police Decide if the walk from those places towards Dataran becomes a Street Protest?

Would someone holding a Sign being considered as "advancing a particular cause" or even wearing of BERSIH yellow shirt?

i don't know....

Frankly I don't give a shit either...

Kalu gua DBKL ...I would open a Saman Booth near Dataran.

If all of you still would like to sit in you can but I will saman you 2000 ringgit...can I have your IC please..tolong beratur dengan sopan jalan potong line.

Minds are like parachutes; they work best when open. -Lord Thomas Dewer