Sunday, April 29, 2012

The Schelling Incident: Ground Zero of BERSIH 3.0 Riot

Remember my Post Anatomy of A High Risk Contentious Performance (here)

In there I mentioned the Schelling Incident

In 1960 Thomas Schelling in The Strategy of Conflict (1960: 90) wrote, It is usually the essence of mob formation that the potential members have to know not only where and when to meet but just when to act so that they act in concert. Overt leadership solves the problem; but leadership can often be identified and eliminated by the authority trying to prevent mob action. In this case the mob's problem is to act in unison without overt leadership, to find some common signal that makes everyone confident that, if he acts on it, he will not be acting alone. The role of ``incidents'' can thus be seen as a coordinating role; it is a substitute for overt leadership and communication. Without something like an incident, it may be difficult to get action at all, since immunity requires that all know when to act together

 And the role of The Entrepreneur

For a riot to begin, it is necessary but not sufficient that there be many people who want to riot and who believe that others want to riot too. One more hurdle has to be overcome. Even in an unstable gathering, the first perpetrator of a misdemeanor is at risk if the police are willing and able to zero in on him. Thus, someone has to serve as a catalyst--a sort of entrepreneur to get things going--in Buford's account usually by breaking a window (a signal that can be heard by many who do not see it). In civil rights, anti-war or anti-abortion marches, it is probably pretty common to find participants eager to expose themselves to arrest in exchange for the chance to optimize the desired impact of their protest. This sort of self-sacrifice is certainly rare in ordinary riots, where potential rioters' behavior is consistent, we suppose, with something like the following calculation: ``If somebody else gets the riot started, I can participate without much risk. But if I stick my neck out and nobody follows, I'll be the only one arrested. So I'll wait for somebody else to go first.'' If every would-be rioter reasoned thus, nobody would cast the first stone, and the riot would not ignite. This is a typical free-rider problem, as economists have called it. It is usually sufficient to prevent riots from occurring, even where there is a plentiful supply of disposed participants. Riots await events that surmount the free rider problem. The entrepreneur will throw the first stone when he calculates that the risk that he will be apprehended for doing so has diminished to an acceptable level. The risk of arrest declines as a function of two variables--the size of the crowd relative to the police force available to control it, and the probability that others will follow if somebody leads. This latter point could potentially be tricky, because as we have noted, crowds will generally be inhospitable to the commission of violent acts

Watch the Youtube Video below I'm no professional lip reader but words like "BUKAK" and "MASUK" and the corresponding actions clearly shows that Anwar Ibrahim gave the GO AHEAD to Azmin Ali to instruct the Guy on his right to breach the Police Barricade

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Internal Migration and Electoral Roll Accuracy Rate: A Quick Look at MERAP's 3.1 Million "Preliminary Analysis"

Press Statement By Dr. Ong Kian Ming, Project Director, Malaysia Electoral Roll Analysis Project (MERAP), UCSI University

At least 3.4m cases or about 27% of the electoral roll need to be further investigated The Election Commission (SPR) Chairman, Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof, was reported to have said, during an interview with Sin Chew Daily, that Malaysia’s electoral roll is the “cleanest in the world”. Only 42,000 voters out of a total of 12.6million, or 0.3% of the total electoral roll were considered unverifiable. Obviously the EC chairman has not bothered to look into the preliminary findings of the Malaysian Electoral Roll Analysis Project (MERAP) which were reported and published in Malaysiakini, The Malaysian Insider and Selangor Times over the past two weeks.

In this preliminary analysis, it was found that the 10 initial problems identified in the electoral roll involved approximately 100,000 voters and that this number could easily rise to 400,000 upon further analysis. Today, I want to announce that upon further investigation and analysis, another 3.3million cases of doubtful voters which needs further investigation have been uncovered. Among this 3.3 million voters are: (1) 3.1 million voters whose IC addresses shows a different voting constituency from the constituency in which the voter is actually voting in. (2) 65455 “foreigners” who are on the electoral roll (3) 106,743 cases of deletions and 6762 cases of additions without public display to the electoral roll from Q4 2010 to Q3 2011. The presence of the 3.1 million voters whose IC addresses do not correspond to their voting constituencies is particularly troubling because this information was given to SPR by the National Registration Department / Jabatan Pendaftaran Negar (JPN) in 2002, before the implementation of the new registration system where all voters had to be registered according to the constituency indicated by their IC address. It seems that SPR failed to act on this information that was given by JPN and to use this information to clean up the electoral roll even though the presence of these non-resident voters contravened Article 119 1(b) of the Federal Constitution which says that a voter must be a resident in the constituency which he or she is voting in. In addition, it is also troubling to note that even though SPR keeps detailed records of the “Bangsa” of individual voters, it seems not to be concerned with the presence of more than 65 thousand “foreigners” in the electoral roll who are “Bruneian, Cocos, Filipino, Indonesian, Pakistani” and so on. Of these 65 thousand “foreign” voters, almost 90% or 59 thousand of them have IC numbers which indicate that they were born in Malaysia. Also troubling is the fact that 49 thousand or 75% of these “foreign” voters can be found in the state of Sabah, where problems with foreigners being given fake ICs have been a long documented problem. Finally, through a detailed analysis of the Q4 2010, Q1 to Q3 quarterly updates and the Q3 2011 electoral roll, it was found that there were over 106 thousand voters who were removed without public display and almost 7 thousand who were added without public display. It was also noticed that in the Q4 quarterly update released by SPR to the political parties, many of the details and information that were given in the Q1 to Q3 updates were missing including important information on the reasons for voters being removed from the electoral roll such as death, joining the army / police, losing their citizenship status and so on. The failure of SPR to take any action on these problematic cases, which total 3.4 million thus far, is an indication that they are not serious about tackling the deep rooted problems of the electoral roll, whether these were problems which were created in the past or those problems which are still arising because of abuses of the system in the present time. The preliminary findings of MERAP shows that there are grave concerns about potential irregularities in the electoral roll and that Malaysia is very far from having the cleanest electoral roll in the world. (here)

Amusing "fact finding" there mate.

3.1 Million people.

Is it a shocking observation?

I don't think so, it is pretty expected on us Malaysians.

Data he quoted was in 2002

Let me take you back to 2005 just for some context of the problem

Last Minute Again 30 Dec 2005 KUALA LUMPUR: The National Registration Department’s nightmare has come true – it was a mad rush at all its offices throughout the country. Thousands of Malaysians lined up outside its offices in a last minute effort to apply for their MyKad. With the deadline expiring tomorrow, the crowds came as early as 5am at the Petaling Jaya NRD office and the queue stretched for about a kilometre along Jalan Sultan, while in Penang they were there before 7am. Despite having three years to do so, these procrastinators jammed up the offices, and in some cases gave the overworked NRD staff a harrowing time. At the Kepong NRD branch, a group vented their frustration at not being able to get a number for the day by hurling abuses at the officers. However, the officers kept their cool and advised them to go to other offices where queues were shorter. In a related development, Public Services Department director-general Datuk Seri Ismail Adam advised the counter staff not to be rude or pull a long face although it was the people's fault. “Civil servants should understand by now that Malaysians always like to do things at the last minute,” he told reporters in Putrajaya. (here)

Typical Malaysians....macam sial last minute...monkey included tapi gua lagi lambat 2008 buat 2009 baru pergi ambik....malas dowhs...

That mad rush is because of 20 ringgit fee.....

20 Ringgit....2 pack of fags sanggup beratur macam negara Komunis miskin bangang giler babeng

PUTRAJAYA: Dec 31 is the absolute last day for free MyKad application. Home Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid said there would be no extension to the deadline, so those who applied for MyKad after that date would be levied a fee to be set by the Government. “The amount will be decided next week,” he said, adding that all National Registration Department (NRD) branches would be accepting applications until midnight on Dec 31. It was reported earlier that the application fee for MyKad was expected to be RM20 as the cost of making a MyKad was RM38. Home Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid Azmi said that Malaysians who studied or lived abroad, and those who resided in remote areas of the country and had to travel far to get their MyKad done would be given a reprieve.

As of Dec 27, the number of people who have yet to apply for MyKad was 1,180,208, he said. To prevent the mad rush at NRD offices in the cities, he suggested that the people go to branches outside the Federal Territory and Selangor – such as Kuala Kubu Baru, Sepang and Sabak Bernam – because these outlets are less busy. “I wish to thank NRD staff who have been working late nights since the rush started, forgoing their holidays and not being able to tend to their children who have to go to school next week,” he said. Azmi also said that old identity cards could still be used after Dec 31, adding that the Government had yet to set a date when such ICs would no longer be valid. “The assumption that the old IC cannot be used starting Jan 1 is not true,” he told a press conference at his ministry here yesterday. Asked why the Government had not set the expiry date for old ICs, Azmi said considerations would have to be made such as Malaysians overseas. (here)
As of Dec 27 2005 1,180,208 Malaysian was still holding on to the Old IC.

The NRD Data given to EC was in 2002

Hell it could even be 10 Million now or maybe just a few hundred thousand.

Would Ong Kian Ming of the MERAP project be able to provide an accurate number to be included in its "Reseach Project" Report

To do that MERAP will need the IC Number of All Voter, the Voting Area Location Details and the Address in the IC....

Get the dates of EC Registration by the voter and the Actual Date of the IC Address in NRD DB

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Would BERSIH Engage A Proactive EC?

Thank you bro Rocky (here...catchy bro) and bro Voice (here) for the follow up pieces.

Now that we all are aware about what we need to do in order to assemble at Dataran Merdeka according to the Law.

A bunch of people still wants to proceed even after alternatives sites are offered.

Kesian Datuk Bandar

Suddenly the spotlight is on them.

Tetiba je especially for the DBKL was rather calm before this kecoh lebih bunch of people starts to stir trouble.

Bole cita ka..
KUALA LUMPUR, April 25 — Kuala Lumpur City Hall (DBKL) threatened today to forcefully bar demonstrators from using Dataran Merdeka for this Saturday’s Bersih 3.0 sit-in protest for electoral reforms, with Mayor Tan Sri Ahmad Fuad Ismail dismissing the activists as unreasonable. Both sides stuck to their guns today in an hour-long meeting at City Hall, with Bersih leaders insisting that it was too late to change the venue of the protest from the historic square to Stadium Merdeka.
Speaking to reporters after meeting Bersih representatives, Ahmad Fuad also pointed out that he would hold Bersih responsible if chaos ensued this Saturday. “Action was taken against those students at Dataran Merdeka. The same action will be taken against (Bersih) if you do the same. “If there is chaos, blame Bersih,” he said.
Yesterday, City Hall enforcers detained four Occupy Dataran activists, hours after evicting the movement from Dataran Merdeka. DBKL officers had earlier seized tents and camping equipment belonging to the activists, and put up steel barricades to stop them from camping there. Occupy Dataran’s stated aim is to reclaim public spaces for the purpose of promoting participatory democracy.
Earlier, Bersih co-chairman Datuk Ambiga Sreenevasan said the movement was still hopeful that City Hall would changed its stand. “We have a grave problem here with time; we cannot change the location because it is already Wednesday. Even if we make an announcement by tomorrow, that leaves two days,” Ambiga told a press conference today. “We believe that if we change the place now, it’s going to cause a bigger confusion. People will gather here (Dataran Merdeka) as well as Stadium Merdeka,” she added. Ambiga stressed there would be less likelihood of chaos if the rally were to go ahead at Dataran Merdeka as planned. “If there is any change now, there will be more chaos. There is just too little time to inform people.”
However, Ahmad Fuad dismissed Ambiga’s justification as “unreasonable”. “If their problem is not having enough time to inform their supporters, we can hold a press conference together to make sure the public knows about our mutual understanding,” he said. Reiterating the offer of Stadium Merdeka as an alternative venue, Ahmad Fuad said the site has more “historical value” as well as “bigger space, more parking, and seats for them to sit on”. “Stadium Merdeka is a win-win situation for all.” (here)

This has become an event of National Importance.

A lot of people would like to know if their demands are valid and if the statistics that they are quoting are credible and the most important question of why they don't want to go Stadium Merdeka.

Macam la jauh sangat pun from Dataran...

I say just give the permit to assemble there

But not to BERSIH

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

The Setingarden : Evaluating "the Occupation" & the planned "Sit In"

KUALA LUMPUR, April 24 — Kuala Lumpur City Hall (DBKL) has justified its clampdown on Occupy Dataran activists, saying that it had given the movement many “chances” before finally deciding to take action today. This is despite the fact that legal provisions, specifically the local ordinances, gave City Hall the power to do so. “We’re not using any new laws. The ‘undang-undang kecil Dataran Merdeka’ has been there for more than 10 years. “We gave these people a chance before, gave them chances to stop it, to walk away. They did not heed our advice... so we took action today,” DBKL’s corporate planning division head Dr Ismail Stapa told The Malaysian Insider. “The by-law has always been there, its just that we did not enforce it before today. Now we are left with no choice but to do so,” he stressed. DBKL detained four pro-Occupy Dataran activists today, hours after chasing the movement away from Dataran Merdeka. here

Let us look at what he is talking about

By-Law 4. Offences. No person shall, unless approved by the Commissioner in writing, in the Dataran Merdeka- (a) eat any food, drink or smoke any cigarette, cigar or any tobacco; (b) cut, remove, damage, pluck any leaf, branch, flower or seed of any plant or tree; (c) cut, uproot, dig, remove or damage any plant, tree or grass; (d) excavate or remove any earth; (e) climb any tree or structure; (f) dirty, deface, make alteration to, displace or damage any structure; (g) nail, tie, bind, chain, draw, scribble, paint, spray, mark, affix, inscribe, display, place or hang anything on any tree, plant or structure; (h) walk over, step or stand on any planting bed or shrubbery; (i) enter or climb the hundred metre flag pole; (j) ride, drive, pull or push any vehicle whether mechanically propelled or otherwise or slide with a skate; (k) contaminate or pollute the water in any fountain; (l) deface or remove any notice displayed by the Commissioner; (m) spit, urine or defecate; (n) displace, make any alteration to, remove, deface or tamper with anything displayed, exhibit, affixed, hung, placed, constructed or set up by the Commissioner; (o) erect any tent, booth, shed or other structure; (p) drop, throw, deposit, place or leave anything whatsoever; (q) kindle any fire or any fireworks or crackers; (r) lie down or sleep in any part of Dataran Merdeka; or (s) allow any animal which is under his control to enter or remain in any part of Dataran Merdeka.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Above the Law: The Immunity of "Law Abiding" Civil Society Movement in Malaysia

Last year I wrote about Bersih 2.0 in The Anatomy of A High Risk Contentious Performance: Evaluating the Ninth of July to provide a framework of looking at Street demonstrations. I even got quoted by BERNAMA for it (here)...layan

Malaysia moved on from that event, we got the Peaceful Assembly Act and the PSC on The Electoral Reform but BERSIH remain Keling Kampung style agent provocateurs.

City Hall says no, Bersih 3.0 to go ahead April 20, 2012 KUALA LUMPUR, April 20 — Bersih 2.0 chairman Datuk Ambiga Sreenevasan said the electoral sit-down protest at Dataran Merdeka next Saturday will go ahead as planned despite Kuala Lumpur City Hall’s rejection of its request. “We are going to go ahead with it anyway,” she told reporters at a press conference today. Fellow Bersih 2.0 steering committee member Maria Chin Abdullah said it received this morning City Hall’s letter rejecting its request to hold the event at the historic square on April 28. File photo of Ambiga (second from right) and other Bersih leaders earlier this month in Kuala Lumpur when they announced the date of the sit-down protest. — “It was a one-paragraph statement saying that our event was not suitable with the use of Dataran Merdeka. “It said: ‘Dataran Merdeka untuk acara yang bertahap nasional. Contohnya, Hari Kebangsaan dan Hari Wilayah Persekutuan dan acara yang setaraf dengannya’,” she told The Malaysian Insider when contacted. Chin said the letter was signed by a Datuk Normah Malik, deputy director of management at City Hall. more here
To be honest I think Datuk Normah Malik may have overlooked some of the provisions in the Peaceful Assembly Act.

Minds are like parachutes; they work best when open. -Lord Thomas Dewer