The Story of Judy and Mr Probability

Gua balik KL last week.......to surprise my wife on her Birthday..........with help from one of her cousin....


It worked!! Best giler......


Malam tu gua pun tengok la Brazil lawan Portugal..first time watching World Cup in KL, belakang cerita commercial time........


First Ad:


Some Tongkat Ali drink thinggy with a chance to become a Millionaire....even showed the guy driving his kancil or something...with the whole back seat packed with the Tongkat Ali drink......


Next Ad:


Some massage chairs con-job ad.....again with monetary rewards and special draw large sum of money gua lupe berapa.........


Both ads got me thinking........it actually brought me back some 30 years ago, where little kids would pay 10 cents to play "Tikam" at Kedai Runcit...........


what is the underlying common element of all these activities??



Is it the hope against a set of Probabilities?


Is it artificial consumption patterns driven primarily by the possibility of big monetary rewards....


Give you another example.


back when I was in KL, Esso n Mobil had a fill-up campaign...for every 50 bucks you stand to win an X-3 BWM.....I was a regular Shell guy........shit I knew my car couldn't care less what brand of fuel it uses n the petrol pump was just next to one another.......


You don't have to guess which pump I went.....


I ask myself......did I switch brand because I wanted the X-3.......this is before the "usaha" part of trying to come out with a catchy slogan.........


So now I'm stuck in kebingungan about the whole Gambling thinggy.......


What defines Gambling?


Is it the fact that you put money against a pre-set probabilities?


What is the difference of the above statement against the act of purchasing the Tongkat Ali beyond what one can consume in the hope of winning the 1 Milllion prize?


Lotteries run in the same manner and folks don't even know how much tickets are being sold to the public (hence not knowing the exact probabilities)


What about financial contracts that bet against a future outcome of the movements of the underlying? Halal or Haram?

Lets look at the Probability play? what level is acceptable for it to become "Halal" or is it the underlying "Niat" embedded in the act? Or is it the payoff structure of the game?


Gua bukan Ustad lu pikir sendiri la brader on this one......


What ever it is gua pening tengok statement you all sorang cakap OK sorang cakap kantoi........4nombor Ekor Boleh, Lottery Boleh, tiba 2 bola tak boleh?


Pening kepala siut.....lets think of another scenario....


If you are a player of the team would it be Halal for you to bet for your own team considering that you are putting in serious effort to win the game?


Camne? Ada masuk akal? Or are you gonna quote conflict of interest (insider trading) situation


if that is "halal" ......then would sport betting be haram for non players?


You may also want to bring in the Social issue angle.......gambling leads to many fucked up things la......


errr......yeah and so does many other things in life.......I don't really want to venture into that angle at this stage......


Start with the basic principle...........which is 

1. the Niat of the action, 
2. the Probability attached against the Niat 
3. and the economic outcome of the action.....

and folks do try to be consistent in your thinking process......